US Israel-Iran War Day 45: Trump orders Hormuz blockade, US warns of 'limited' strikes; Iran hits back as oil tops $100

The Iran-Israel war entered its 45th day on Monday, with a sharp escalation led by the United States’ decision to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports, a move that has rattled global energy markets, hardened Iran’s stance, and intensified parallel fighting in Lebanon.

Diplomatic efforts appear to have collapsed at a critical juncture, pushing the conflict into a more volatile phase.

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Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, says Trump

After the announcement of the blockade, US President Donald Trump reiterated that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. We can't let ​a country blackmail or extort the world, he said.

• Trump said Iran had been in touch and wanted to make a deal but that he would not sanction any agreement allowing Tehran to have a nuclear weapon.
• "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon," Trump told reporters at the White House. "We can't let ​a country blackmail or extort the world."
• Trump also said Washington would block Iranian vessels and any ships that paid such tolls and that any Iranian "fast-attack" ships that went near the blockade would be eliminated.

US blockade and maritime escalation

The most consequential development came from Washington, with the US military announcing a sweeping blockade targeting Iranian maritime activity.

• The US said it will enforce a blockade on all Iranian Gulf ports from Monday at 1400 GMT, effectively asserting control over maritime access linked to Iran.
• The move directly impacts the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil artery responsible for nearly one-fifth of global supply.
• US Central Command stated: “The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.”
• It clarified that vessels transiting to non-Iranian ports would not be impeded, attempting to limit broader disruption.
• Earlier, President Donald Trump said the US navy would “interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran,” adding: “No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.”

The announcement signals a shift from indirect involvement to direct economic and maritime pressure, raising the risk of confrontation in one of the world’s most sensitive chokepoints.

Iran’s response: Defiance and warnings

Tehran responded with strong rhetoric, rejecting US pressure and warning of retaliation, even as it acknowledged that diplomacy had nearly succeeded.

Iran’s leadership framed the blockade as a provocation rather than a deterrent, signalling that it would not concede under pressure.

• Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said: “If they fight, we will fight, and if they come forward with logic, we will deal with logic.”
• He added: “We will not bow to any threats, let them test our will once again so that we can teach them a bigger lesson.”
• Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had been “inches away” from a deal with the US during talks in Islamabad.
• “Iran engaged with US in good faith to end war,” he said, but added negotiations collapsed due to “maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade.”
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned adversaries could be caught in a “deadly vortex” if they made a “wrong move.”
• Navy chief Shahram Irani called Trump’s threat “ridiculous and funny,” saying Iranian forces are “monitoring and supervising all the movements of the aggressive American army in the region.”

The contrasting messages—near-agreement followed by confrontation—underscore how quickly the situation deteriorated.

Also read: Trump returns to weary and failing playbook with Hormuz blockade threat

Oil markets react to Gulf tensions

The blockade announcement sent immediate shockwaves through energy markets, reflecting fears of disrupted supply routes.

• US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for May delivery surged around 8% to $104.50 per barrel.
• Brent crude for June delivery rose roughly 7% to $102 per barrel.
• The price spike follows failed peace talks and renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Gulf.

The return of $100-plus oil highlights the global economic stakes tied to the conflict, particularly if maritime routes are threatened further.

Lebanon front: Parallel war intensifies

While the Gulf tensions dominate headlines, the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon continues to escalate, adding another layer to the broader war.

Lebanon’s leadership has pushed for de-escalation, but developments on the ground suggest continued military engagement.

• Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said: “We will continue to work to stop this war, to ensure the Israeli withdrawal from all our lands… and the safe return of the displaced.”
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said forces had removed the threat of a Hezbollah invasion.
• “The war continues, including within the security zone in Lebanon,” Netanyahu said.
• Israel maintains that the broader ceasefire does not apply to its operations against Hezbollah.

The divergence between diplomatic messaging and military action reflects the fragmented nature of the conflict.

Ground situation: Clashes and casualties

On the ground, the situation remains volatile, with continued strikes, casualties, and tensions involving international forces.

• The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said an Israeli tank twice rammed its peacekeeping vehicles in southern Lebanon.
• Israeli troops also blocked access to UNIFIL positions in Bayada.
• Lebanese official media reported extensive Israeli strikes across the south.
• The health ministry said at least five people were killed in the latest attacks.
• The total death toll in Lebanon since the escalation has reached 2,055.
• US is mulling 'limited strikes' on Iran, according to report by Wall Street Journal.

These incidents highlight the risks of miscalculation, particularly with international peacekeepers present in the conflict zone.

A conflict at a tipping point

At Day 45, the Iran-Israel war is no longer confined to direct hostilities but has expanded into economic warfare, regional proxy battles, and global market disruptions. The US blockade marks a significant escalation, while Iran’s defiance signals readiness for further confrontation.

With diplomacy faltering despite being “inches away” from a deal, and multiple fronts heating up simultaneously, the conflict appears to be entering a more dangerous and unpredictable phase.