Iran, US and mediators discuss potential 45 day ceasefire to 'permanently' end West Asia war

The United States, Iran and a group of regional mediators are engaged in talks over a proposed 45-day ceasefire that could open a pathway to a permanent end to the ongoing West Asia conflict, according to a report by Axios citing four US, Israeli and regional sources familiar with the negotiations.

The report said the discussions are centred on a two-phase framework, with the first phase involving a temporary ceasefire during which broader negotiations would take place to end the war.

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While diplomats see the effort as a critical opening, sources cautioned that the likelihood of securing even a partial agreement in the next 48 hours remains low.

Deadline diplomacy and threat of escalation

The urgency around the talks has intensified following an extended deadline set by Donald Trump. The U.S. president, who had initially given Iran a 10-day window, pushed the cutoff to Tuesday evening, signalling what he described as ongoing “deep negotiations.”

Speaking to Axios, Trump said there was “a good chance” of reaching a deal before the deadline, while also warning of sweeping military action if diplomacy fails. He reiterated threats targeting critical infrastructure in Iran, raising concerns among experts that such strikes could have severe humanitarian implications.

According to the report, contingency plans for a large-scale U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign on Iran’s energy facilities are already in place. Sources indicated that the decision to extend the deadline was intended to give diplomacy one final opportunity before potential escalation.

Iran, for its part, has warned that any attacks on civilian infrastructure would be met with retaliatory strikes on key facilities in Israel and Gulf countries, heightening fears of a broader regional fallout.

Terms of a fragile two-phase proposal

Behind the scenes, negotiations are being conducted through intermediaries from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, along with indirect exchanges between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the Axios report said.

The proposed first phase centres on a 45-day ceasefire, which could be extended if negotiations require more time. The second phase would aim to formalise a comprehensive agreement to end the conflict.

Also read: Iran warns US will be dragged into ‘living hell’ in scathing response to Trump's rhetoric

Key sticking points remain Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium—issues viewed as Tehran’s primary leverage. Mediators are exploring whether Iran could take limited, confidence-building steps on both fronts during the initial ceasefire period.

At the same time, discussions are underway on what assurances Washington could provide to convince Tehran that any ceasefire would not collapse into renewed hostilities. Iranian officials have reportedly expressed concerns about entering an arrangement that could resemble past ceasefires in Gaza or Lebanon, where fighting resumed despite formal agreements.

U.S. officials have put forward several proposals in recent days, though none have been accepted so far, according to the report. The White House has declined to comment on the negotiations.

Mediators are said to be increasingly alarmed by the potential consequences of a breakdown in talks. They have warned that any Iranian retaliation following strikes on its energy infrastructure could have damaging effects on oil and water facilities across Gulf states.

Despite the diplomatic push, public statements from Tehran suggest a firm stance. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have indicated that conditions in the Strait of Hormuz would not revert to pre-war norms, particularly for the U.S. and Israel.