Ukraine pushed Russia back in May for second month running: AFP analysis

Kyiv: Ukraine recaptured more territory than it lost to Russian forces in May for the second straight month, AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showed.

Ukraine's army gained a net 282 square kilometres (109 square miles) over the month, according to the analysis, as Kyiv hails its improving fortunes on the sprawling battlefield across the south and east of the country.

The pace of Russia's advance has been slowing since late 2025, hobbled by the increasing effectiveness of Ukraine's frontline and mid-range drone strikes, the ISW said.


Moscow had lost control of around 120 square kilometres (46 square miles) in April, the first month in which its forces gave up more ground than they captured for two and a half years.

However, Russian soldiers are still infiltrated in most of the areas where Ukraine has retaken territory, the ISW said.

The Russian army regularly sends small groups of soldiers to take up positions along parts of the front line and hide there -- a tactic designed to pave the way for larger groups of troops to advance later.

Ukraine's gains in April and May -- around 403 square kilometres (156 square miles) in total -- remain marginal, representing around 0.4 percent of the total territory held by Russia.

But they nevertheless point to a positive trend for Kyiv, which has touted itself as having recently gained the upper hand in the four-year conflict.

"Ukraine's successful mid-range and frontline drone strike campaigns are limiting Russia's ability to transport personnel to the frontline and to supply and sustain frontline positions," the ISW reported last week.

Most of Ukraine's gains were in the eastern Donetsk region, which Russia claims as its own and is fighting to capture in full, and in the southern Zaporizhzhia region.

The estimates exclude advances claimed by Russia but that the ISW has neither confirmed nor denied.

The ISW works with the Critical Threats Project, part of the American Enterprise Institute, another US think tank specialising in conflict analysis.

Moscow occupies just over 19 percent of Ukraine.

That includes around seven percent -- Crimea and parts of the industrial Donbas region -- that was already under Russian or pro-Russian separatist control before the February 2022 invasion.

Most of Russia's advances were made during the first weeks of the conflict.

Hundreds of thousands have been killed and millions forced from their homes since Russia invaded in February 2022.