Trump’s art of the deal collides with Iran’s patient diplomacy

On a hot July day in 2015, talks between the top US and Iranian diplomats boiled over into a shouting match — one that echoed through the corridors of the 19th-century Viennese palace where they were locked in marathon talks.

John Kerry and Mohammad Javad Zarif were arguing over what became a landmark nuclear accord between the US and Iran that took 20 months of negotiations. The unraveling of that deal under Donald Trump’s first presidency laid the ground for the current war between the countries.

Now, the sides are preparing for another tough negotiation, this time to formally end a two-month conflict that’s wreaked havoc across the Middle East and sent oil prices soaring. Complicating the matter is a clash of styles between a country led by a real estate mogul who prides himself on quick dealmaking and the revolutionary ideology of the Islamic Republic, a sworn enemy of the US for almost half a century.


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“Negotiating with Iran requires a high dose of patience, time and hard-slog diplomacy,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council for Foreign Relations. “It also needs an understanding that once Tehran enters a diplomatic process, optics of respect and dignity are critical for success.”

Iran’s latest proposal, essentially an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington ending its blockade of Iranian ports, is another sign that any accord that fully addresses US concerns will take plenty of time. More complex negotiations over the country’s nuclear program would be postponed.

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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasized the frustration of US allies, increasingly concerned about the impact of the strait’s closure on the global economy, when he said Washington is being “humiliated” by Iran’s leaders. Tehran’s negotiators are, Merz said on Monday, proceeding “very skilfully — or indeed very skilfully not negotiating.”

US State Department official Wendy Sherman, one of the lead negotiators on the nuclear deal, told Bloomberg Iran’s leaders are more hardline than they were when she was sat at the table with them. “That means the concessions the president thinks will come easily, will not,” Sherman said. “Trump wants them to really just capitulate. That’s never going to happen.”

The Iranians aren’t scared of Trump’s military threats, but his unreliable and unpredictable nature means they can’t take him at his word, said one European diplomat who’s in contact with Iranian officials. He asked not to be named in line with the rules of his ministry.

Up for discussion this time is not just Iran’s nuclear program, but control over Hormuz, the critical waterway for energy supplies that Tehran has kept effectively shut since the start of the conflict in late February. Failure to reach a deal risks a resumption of a war that’s killed thousands of people, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, and threatens to push up inflation worldwide.

“The Iranian negotiator is typically characterized by exceptional patience, composure, and a strong focus on priorities,” said Yasser Osman, the former head of Egypt’s diplomatic mission in Tehran.

“Concessions are not made easily,” he said. The approach “reflects a blend of the patience and craftsmanship of a Persian carpet weaver with the pragmatism of a traditional bazaar merchant.”

Cultural stereotypes, particularly references to haggling and bargaining, are often used by foreign diplomats to refer to Iranians — and sometimes by Iranian officials themselves – to describe Tehran’s strategy.

“Experienced people connected to the market talk and provide arguments, telling examples and stories so much that the other side of the deal, as they say, ‘gets numb’ and gives its consent,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in his diplomatic guidebook, titled “The Power of Negotiation.”

Sometimes Iran took that approach to extremes. Kerry “would endure lectures” on “5,000 years of Iranian civilization” from Zarif in the talks for the 2015 deal, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, former US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer recalled to US broadcaster NPR.

The protracted niceties of the bazaar form a stark contrast with Trump, whose own book “The Art of The Deal” advocates being aggressive and “a little outrageous” to pressure opponents and control the narrative.

The US leader has tried to inject urgency into the talks with social-media posts laying out repeated deadlines and threats – while insisting that he won’t be rushed into a bad compromise.

That included a social media post saying that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” Sent hours before the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire on April 7, some of Trump’s allies claim such language is leading Iran to make concessions.

Another camp of advisers to the president argues that this kind of erratic and undiplomatic language has made Iranian leaders less inclined to strike a deal or even agree to a fresh round of talks, Bloomberg reported last week. A first round in Pakistan in mid-April lasted around 15 hours and ended without any sign of progress.

Previous negotiations between Tehran and Washington were difficult enough. But the war has further hardened Iran’s diplomatic stance. It sees the conflict as existential — an attempt by the US and Israel to destabilize the country and overthrow the ruling regime — and now realizes its asymmetric advantages, not least its ability to prevent vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, perhaps the most powerful organization in the country, military and economically, now looms large over the negotiating table. Its leaders threaten to spoil any concessions that encroach on its newfound control over the waterway.

The US and Israel have assassinated longtime Iranian mediators with the West such as national security chief Ali Larijani and former Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi, removing more pragmatic voices from the scene.

That leaves political hardliners like former IRGC commander Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf — the speaker of parliament and Iran’s lead negotiator in Pakistan — and Ali Bagheri-Kani taking prominence in the talks. The latter is associated with the ultra-conservative “paydari” faction that’s bitterly opposed to mending bridges with the US.

The failure of diplomacy would likely mean a return to war. Both sides say they’re prepared for that outcome, despite the further destruction and market turmoil that would almost certainly ensue.

One Iranian diplomat who’s familiar with previous US-Iran negotiations cited Saadi Shirazi, a 13th century Persian poet who emphasized dignity over luxuries, to explain his country’s stance. It’s important, he said, for negotiators to hold their heads high even if it means eating bread and not meat. He declined to be identified discussing sensitive matters.