Trump says Iran war may not return & oil has little to fear

US President Donald Trump on Thursday said he did not expect the conflict with Iran to restart, but warned that if Tehran launched fresh attacks, Washington would retaliate "ten times harder" and any renewed fighting would end "very quickly."

"I don't think its going to start again," Trump said. "If they hit, we hit ten times harder. Anything that happens will get over very quickly, and we'll make things safer, even for oil. Oil is going to be very free, very easy."

Also read: Trump invokes 'retribution' to justify US strikes on Iran; warns Tehran 'much worse' yet to come


The remarks marked a notable shift in tone after Trump earlier defended fresh U.S. military strikes on Iran as retaliation for what Washington said were attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and suggested that the temporary understanding between the two countries had effectively collapsed.

Trump's 'retribution' vs Iran

"This is in retribution for yesterday's bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!" Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

The United States launched a fresh wave of military strikes against Iran on Thursday, in what marked another sharp escalation in the West Asian conflict.

According to the U.S. military, the strikes were intended to degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after three cargo vessels were attacked while transiting the strategic waterway on Tuesday. Washington blamed Tehran for the incident, saying the operation was necessary to safeguard one of the world's busiest energy shipping routes.

The U.S. Central Command said the operations were aimed at preserving freedom of navigation and ensuring the security of civilian shipping and international trade through the narrow passage, which carries nearly one-fifth of global oil supplies. Iran has not publicly acknowledged involvement in the attacks on the merchant vessels.

Also read: Iran: Gulf on boil again as new US strikes mark fresh escalation; fear rises of a return to war

Oil shrugs off Trump's optimism

Despite Trump's assertion that the conflict would make conditions "safer, even for oil", crude prices extended gains for a third consecutive session on Thursday as fresh U.S. strikes on Iran weakened hopes of a near-term resolution to the conflict and prolonged uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures rose 78 cents, or about 1%, to $78.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 74 cents, or just over 1%, to $74.26 a barrel. Both benchmarks had already climbed to their highest levels in more than two weeks in the previous session after Trump warned of additional military action against Iran.

The latest gains reflected investor concerns that renewed hostilities could keep one of the world's most important oil chokepoints under pressure. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries around one-fifth of global oil supplies, and any prolonged disruption to shipping through the route could tighten crude supplies and push up freight costs.

The U.S. military has said the latest strikes were intended to protect commercial navigation through the strait following attacks on three tankers earlier this week. But markets remain cautious as prospects of a diplomatic breakthrough have dimmed.

Analysts said the latest escalation has cast fresh doubt over the future of the 60-day negotiation process between Washington and Tehran. Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, told Reuters that oil prices closer to $80 a barrel now appeared more consistent with prevailing market fundamentals than levels around $70.

Longer-term concerns also remain. Last month, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser warned that any sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could delay the return of stability to global oil markets until 2027 and affect nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply every week.

Industry experts believe shipping activity through the strait is unlikely to normalise quickly even if hostilities ease. Restoring trade flows would require coordinated movement of vessels, restarting oil production, repairing damaged infrastructure and clearing sea lanes, while many shipowners remain reluctant to resume operations in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Persian Gulf.

Analysts also noted that global oil inventories have been drawn down during the disruption to shipping through the waterway and could take time to rebuild, leaving crude markets vulnerable to further geopolitical shocks.

Also read: Oil nears $80, up for 3rd day as US launches fresh strikes on Iran. Hormuz supply in jeopardy?

Gulf on the boil again

The renewed hostilities have dealt a fresh blow to hopes that the memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 could pave the way for broader de-escalation. Earlier on Thursday, Trump had also expressed scepticism over the prospects of any lasting agreement with Tehran, saying he no longer believed the temporary understanding remained viable.

Iran, meanwhile, said it had launched strikes against U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation for earlier American operations, fuelling concerns that the confrontation could spread across the Gulf, where several countries host U.S. military bases.

Iranian state media also reported fresh explosions in Bandar Abbas, Chabahar and Konarak along the country's southern coastline, while electricity supply was disrupted in parts of Chabahar. Media affiliated with Iran's security establishment said military planners were preparing a significantly larger retaliatory operation targeting U.S. military bases across the region.

Despite the renewed military exchanges, Trump sought to project confidence that the conflict would not escalate into a prolonged war, while also attempting to reassure markets by saying any disruption would ultimately make conditions "safer, even for oil," with oil becoming "very free, very easy."