The next Iran war could be bigger, wider and harder to contain

A renewed US-Iran war could be more dangerous than the previous rounds, with Tehran preparing for fresh attacks and threatening to widen the battlefield beyond its borders.

Iran is fortifying nuclear sites, preparing civilians for warfare and warning Gulf states of possible retaliation against their territory, the Wall Street Journal has reported. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is facing a renewed Houthi campaign that has already hit Riyadh’s airport, while fighting in Yemen threatens the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another vital artery for global trade.

With the US keeping military options open and diplomacy unresolved, a new offensive could trigger simultaneous crises across the Gulf and Red Sea. The UK attributing Fairford airbase attack to the IRGC can become a basis for direct British participation in the war.


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Iran prepares for a messier war

Iran is preparing for possible American attacks after the November 3 US midterm elections. Trump had pointed out a week ago that the US won't hit Iran till midterms. Iran has reportedly warned that renewed strikes would invite retaliation against American interests and Gulf allies, including Saudi oil facilities and targets in the UAE.

Iranian officials have also raised the possibility of land incursions into neighbouring countries. Such warnings suggest Tehran wants to make the costs of another US offensive clear to governments hosting American forces. This may also suggest that Iran also expects ground incursions by the US forces.

The preparations inside Iran are tangible. Satellite imagery analysed by the Institute for Science and International Security showed makeshift earthworks around the Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz nuclear sites last month, according to the WSJ. Although they do not establish that Iran expects a ground invasion to take place, the mounds could complicate ground access by US-Israeli forces to sensitive facilities.

Brigadier General Gholamreza Jalali, who oversees contingency planning, said Iran's airports, seaports and power plants had prepared for wartime conditions. Billboards in Tehran have advertised civilian training in firing shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles.

The measures indicate that Iran is preparing to withstand a bigger and more unpredictable attack.

The diplomacy drags on

President Donald Trump said on October 8 that the US would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, citing productive discussions with Iran.

Also Read: Iran likely behind security inident at RAF Fairford, says UK PM Burnham

Axios had reported that Trump had been considering resuming major combat operations before the midterms for several days. Sources cited by the outlet said renewed operations could involve large-scale strikes on Iranian energy facilities, infrastructure and nuclear targets. Though Trump subsequently publicly ruled it out, Iranian preparations might suggest the country won't rely on Trump's word.

The WSJ says US officials are preparing options for renewed strikes, while a third aircraft carrier strike group and another Marine expeditionary unit are heading towards the Middle East.

Iran's preparations and American deployments therefore indicate continuing military readiness, even as diplomatic contacts remain possible. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that Tehran was reviewing a US response to its proposal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and would reply through intermediaries after completing its assessment.

New Iranian threats

Iranian threats against American data centres and internet cables across the region would extend the consequences of a renewed war beyond conventional military installations.

US technology infrastructure in the Gulf supports cloud computing, financial services, government operations and other digital activity. Damage to data centres could interrupt services even without a direct attack on American territory. Undersea cables carry much of the region's international internet traffic, making their disruption a potential source of wider connectivity problems.

These threats highlight how a conflict could affect commercial infrastructure used by multiple countries, including those not directly participating in the fighting.

A campaign against Gulf infrastructure could also create pressure on governments to choose between supporting US military operations and limiting their exposure to Iranian retaliation. That would give Iran additional avenues for exerting influence beyond the battlefield.

Could Fairford mean British involvement?

Britain's role might add another complication. On October 12, Prime Minister Andy Burnham said Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was highly likely to have directed an alleged plot against RAF Fairford, a base in western England used by US bombers during the war against Iran. Iran has denied involvement and rejected the accusation as an unsupported attempt to implicate it, terming it as a “clumsy false flag operation”.

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The following day, MI5 chief Ken McCallum warned of a shift in Iranian ambitions towards harder targets, including military installations. He described the Fairford incident as “not unique”, adding that similar examples had occurred elsewhere. However, he declined to discuss the case because it remained under investigation.

As per reports, seven men had been arrested and released on bail under investigation. Police found petrol canisters in three vans near the base but no explosives, armed drones or other weapons.

Could the incident become a justification for British participation in renewed strikes? Politically, the allegations could strengthen arguments for closer security cooperation with the US or tougher action against Iranian networks. But so far there is no evidence of Britain considering to join a future offensive against Iran.

A war harder to contain

The parallel escalation in Yemen could make a renewed Iran war substantially harder to contain. After Saudi Arabia re-entered the conflict against the Houthis, supporting a counteroffensive by Yemen's internationally recognised government, the Houthis responded with missile and drone attacks against Saudi targets. A strike on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport on Saturday killed at least 12 people. Saudi Arabia said the airport would remain closed until October 17.

The campaign has also placed oil infrastructure at risk. The Houthis had earlier claimed attacks on Saudi energy facilities, including an Aramco refinery at Rabigh, although not all reported strikes have been independently confirmed. But their demonstrated ability to reach major airports, energy assets and military sites shows that Saudi Arabia is vulnerable despite the kingdom's air defences.

The maritime threat is potentially more dangerous. The Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is a crucial route for vessels travelling between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal. The Houthis had seized territory around the strait in September, while Saudi-backed Yemeni forces subsequently claimed advances in the area. Control of the surrounding coastline and high ground remains contested.

A sustained Houthi campaign could threaten commercial shipping and complicate Saudi efforts to export oil through Red Sea routes. If the Strait of Hormuz is also disrupted by a renewed Iran war simultaneously, energy markets would face pressure at two separate maritime chokepoints. Rerouting vessels would add time and cost, while attacks on refineries, pipelines and airports could create additional disruption.

Two fronts, one widening regional crisis

The danger lies in the interaction between these conflicts. An American attack on Iran could prompt retaliation against Gulf infrastructure, while intensifying Saudi-Houthi hostilities could expose the kingdom to further strikes and put Red Sea shipping at risk. The result would not necessarily be a coordinated two-front campaign, but overlapping conflicts could stretch air defences, disrupt commercial transport and raise the cost of protecting energy supplies.

The diplomatic option over Hormuz still remains but the military preparations on both sides suggest that a negotiated outcome is not assured. If fighting resumes, the central challenge will be preventing attacks on military targets from expanding into a broader campaign across the region against civilian infrastructure, energy assets and international trade.