Surgical strike robs Pakistan of anti-India proxy war options

NEW DELHI: Retaliating to India's cross-LoC strike could be a knotty dilemma for Pakistan. An Uri-type attack carries the risk of serious escalation while a jihadi strike on civilians will draw attention to Pakistan's terror links+ even as Kashmir seems to have fallen off the map. Though the possibility of a counterstrike looms large on the Indian security radar, Pakistan might find itself wrestling with unattractive choices resulting from a misplaced assessment of India's response to a terror attack.

The decision to "sanction" the attack on the Army camp at Uri and Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif's apparent acquiescence to the nation's military's plans seem to have been based on an estimation that the protests in Kashmir had made it "ripe" for an external push.

With the Modi government surprising Pakistan, the tables seem to be turned. Using one of its proxies to target another Indian military camp in Jammu & Kashmir or even elsewhere is fraught with the risk of such an act leading to full-scale hostilities. India can no longer be counted on to take a hit on the jaw and remain quiescent. This will almost certainly invite international criticism, and its isolation among Saarc nations can hardly be reassuring for Pakistan.

On the other hand, a "deniable" terrorist attack on an Indian city presents a fresh set of problems. Any trail that leads to groups fostered by Pakistan will only enhance its image as a terror factory.

PM Narendra Modi's decision does raise issues for India, as surgical strikes may not be easy to repeat after every terror attack. The Pakistan military would work to close the loopholes along the LoC that Indian troops exploited.

Pakistan's complications arise from uncertainty over whether to expect a military reprisal. While perils of a cross-LoC operation going awry with casualties or a Black Hawk Down situation held back his predecessors, Modi decided to work with the probabilities offered by the Army.

The calculus having been reset, Pakistan's leadership may still find the pressure to act difficult to resist. But almost any course of action is only likely to take the gaze — and sympathy — of most nations away from Kashmir. Having egged on stone-pelters in the Valley and gone the whole hog at the UN, this is a bitter pill to swallow.