Power equations to checkmate Afghan trouble

Amid the worsening security situation in Afghanistan, big powers and regional countries are coming together to form quadrilaterals and trilaterals to stabilise the region and prevent spread of terror. While the US formed a new Quad comprising Pakistan, Afghanistan & Uzbekistan at the Tashkent connectivity meet, Pakistan and China are trying to work with Afghanistan to secure their interests. Russia is working with the Tajikistan military, on one hand, and preparing for joint military exercises with Uzbekistan. India is trying to work with Iran & Russia. Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, who was in Tashkent, explains the new Great Game.

AFPAKQUAD
USA, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan have agreed in-principle to establish a new quadrilateral diplomatic platform focused on enhancing regional connectivity. They consider long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan critical to regional connectivity and agree that peace and regional connectivity are mutually reinforcing. But this Afpakquad could increase great power rivalry as it seeks to counterbalance both traditional Russian influence and growing Chinese inroads in the region. However, Uzbekistan (erstwhile republic in the USSR) with Russia as its foreign policy priority will be careful in any alliance against Moscow.

CSTO

Russia and Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will assist Tajikistan in protecting its border with Afghanistan. CSTO Secretary General Stanislav Zas had said that the situation in Afghanistan’s northern regions was deteriorating and was a cause for serious concern.

SCO
The Eurasian regional security architecture held its meeting of Afghan Contact Group last week on the eve of the Tashkent connectivity meet. The contact group, including foreign ministers of India, Pakistan, China and Russia, came out with a joint statement seeking stability of Afghanistan.

India-Russia-Iran: India as underlined by Foreign Minister S Jaishankar’s Tehran & Moscow trips is trying to work with Iran & Russia. India is also working bilaterally with Tehran and Moscow on the Afghan file.

Pakistan-China-Afghanistan: Pakistan, the winner in the short-term following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, is working with China on the Afghan issue in collaboration with Kabul. Foreign ministers of the three countries held a joint trilateral dialogue in June as Taliban expanded their reach within Afghanistan.

Russia-Central Asia: Russia has been a traditional player in the region since the Tsarist period and even after the breakup of the Soviet Union continues to maintain influence. Any spillover of Taliban influence or presence of splinter terror groups in Afghanistan’s bordering states could impact security in the Russian heartland. Moscow would prefer that borders of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to remain peaceful as entry of splinter hardline groups could damage their security and secular fabric.

INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA
Delhi is engaged with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to safeguard its security interests in the region besides Kazakhstan. Afghan issue dominated Jaishankar’s trips to Tashkent and Dushanbe.