Pakistan’s waning usefulness, IS behind US President Barack Obama’s nuclear concern

NEW DELHI: In late 2015, elements in the Obama administration reportedly offered a "nuclear deal" to Pakistan — to get Islamabad into the Nuclear Suppliers Group in return for Pakistan taking a series of steps to rein in its nuclear weapons, particularly the tactical weapons which, in a country teeming with jihadi groups, could be a recipe for disaster .

Indian commentators were more upset about the nuclear "offer" to Pakistan than Pakistan itself. The nuclear programme there is the sole preserve of the army which dismissed the offer with the contempt it deserved. Pakistan maintains its position — its nuclear weapons are all targetted at India, and are a response to India's conventional superiority. Moreover, their tactical nukes are direct response to India's supposed 'Cold Start' doctrine, one that has been more publicised than implemented. US officials, when questioned, maintained they would continue to incentivise Pakistan to contain their nukes.

India has, for some time, drawn attention to the dangers posed by Pakistan's tactical weapons. Former NSA Shivshankar Menon described them as the "jihadi edge" to Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme. But there was little pressure on Pakistan from the world, partly because of its potential usefulness in Afghanistan, partly due to China's support to Pakistan which insulates it from much global pressure.

In the past couple of months though, Pakistan's "usefulness" has been somewhat tested. The quadrilateral coordination group which was aimed at bringing the Taliban to the table for talks with the Afghan government, so the US could withdraw, has not gone anywhere. The Taliban remain virulent in Afghanistan, showing no sign of wanting to engage in peace talks.

What appears to have sharpened the Obama administration's concerns about Pakistan's tactical nukes is the fact that two suspected IS terrorists were shot trying to access Belgium's nuclear plants. Recent reports point to a worrying trend highlighted by counter-terrorism experts — that IS is expanding its footprint in Balochistan, which is where most of Pakistan's nuclear assets are housed.

Barack Obama, therefore, had little choice but to highlight the biggest threat to international security — of terror groups accessing nuclear weapons, or nuclear material.
However, the US establishment has equally bought in to the Pakistani explanation that their nuclear weapons are all due to India.