Pakistan is supporting IS-Khorasan in Afghanistan: Srinjoy Bose

It has been a bloody Ramadan in Afghanistan, starting with a Taliban car bombing in eastern Afghanistan, the massive suicide bomb attack near the Indian embassy in Kabul's diplomatic area that killed over 90 people and last week's insider shooting of US military personnel by a renegade Afghan soldier in northern Afghanistan. Durham University's Srinjoy Bose, currently visiting research fellow at Australian National University, served as an international election observer during the 2014 Afghan presidential elections and spoke to Pratigyan Das about the country's changing security situation and what it means for India.

How badly has the political and security situation in Afghanistan deteriorated?
Afghanistan is in turmoil. Tension tween the camps of Afghanistan between the camps of Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and CEO Abdullah Abdullah is palpable. In the recent past, Ghani's camp has tried to engineer Abdullah's dismissal. It was averted only because this was not supported by the international community .Many of Ghani's actions and policies have been criticised by Abdullah. Abdullah has even publicly declared that Ghani is “unfit for the presidency“ but Abdullah's own camp is in turmoil with senior allies within his party base having lost confidence in his leadership.

Most of Kunduz province is now controlled by Taliban. Similarly, Taliban have made advances in Tirin Kot, capital of Uruzgan province, and have taken control of Sangin in Helmand. According to the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, as of February 1, 2017, only 57.2% of the country's 375 districts were under Afghan government control or influence.

Do you think President Ghani has been effective in tackling the Afghan crisis?
On the economy ,Ghani has introduced fiscal and revenue collection reforms, and has somewhat managed to balance the budget. Yet, he has failed to deliver on security and political stability . His governance reforms have centred on anticorruption reform and centralisation of power in the office of the president.This has not been perceived well by other political camps. On appointments to senior civil and military posts, Ghani has stacked the government and security agencies with ethnic allies. Abdullah has done the same.

The perception of discrimination among Afghanistan's minority communities ­ Hazaras and Uzbeks ­ has contributed to a widening ethnic and regional divide. Political and ethnic partisanship has permeated the security appara has permeated the security apparatus, too, undermining the command structures of the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces. Some observers have even suggested Taliban are stronger today than they have ever been since 2001.

Observers point out that Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) is becoming a stronger force in the region. Your take?
Their activities are certainly gaining more exposure. The most interesting corollary of their rise has been a view in Russian, Chinese and even Iranian quarters that the international community can and should negotiate with Taliban ­ the chief enemy is IS-K and Taliban can assist in this fight against the enemy .

First, the shift in Chinese, Russian views of Taliban may help the peace process progress but this legitimises Taliban and has certainly played into Pakistan's pro-negotiation rhetoric.Second, the Chinese and Russian position ­ if it eventuates in a negotiated peace ­ will reshape Afghan politics. IS-K will be defeated but everything from security to the constitution, national-level politics to local-level dynamics, will be renegotiated.

There is evidence that ISI is supporting IS-K. It is simply another tool in Pakistan's spoiler toolkit.

How do you see US Afghan policy changing under President Donald Trump?
Recent calls for a modest troop increase are evidence of a ramshackle strategy . How, and what, can a few thousand more troops achieve where 1,00,000 failed? The hullabaloo over dropping ordnance GBU-43B, a 10 ton bomb, in Achin district on April 11, 2016, is further evidence that Trump is all about “show of force“. There are sections within the Afghan administration and civil society who welcome Trump's rhetoric and show of assertiveness.

What do you make of the recent decision by Afghanistan and Pakistan to revive the Quadrilateral Coordination Group on Afghanistan?
The Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) ­ comprising the US, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan ­ process died in 2016 with the killing of Taliban leader Mullah Mansour. It was succeeded by the 2017 Six-Party Talks that included Russia, China, Pakistan, India, Iran and Afghanistan. Just as Moscow was excluded from the earlier QCG process, this time Washington was excluded from the consultative talks led by Moscow.Trump administration has sought to revive the QCG process.

A new Great Game is manifesting.This is bad news for both Afghanistan and India. It strengthens Pakistan's hand in the peace process. India will need to convince Russia and China that their overtures to Taliban are misguided.