Mecca Pact may meet same fate as Board of Peace, Abraham Accords

Fidayeen attack on Kohat Police Lines in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa grim reminder of the state of affairs in Pakistan

There is a stark contrast between the image Pakistan Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir is projecting internationally and grim domestic realities. Rather than believing boastful claims of the Pakistani establishment, the countries eyeing support from the Pakistan Army for fighting their wars should first make an objective assessment as to its capabilities to secure its own personnel in the insurgency-affected province of Balochistan and terrorism-infested Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The incident of the fidayeen attack on Kohat Police Lines in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on September 18 by Ittehadul Mujahideen Pakistan, a splinter group of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), that caused the deaths of around 23 people, including 16 policemen, is just one grim reminder of the state of affairs in Pakistan. The very next day, TTP terrorists killed six Pakistan Army personnel, including two officers, in an ambush in the same region. There are reports of army officers refusing postings in these two violence-affected provinces and even leaving the service.


Unable to sustain huge losses and consequent demoralisation in its ranks, the Pakistan Army has started outsourcing the fight against Baloch separatists and TTP to "lashkars" consisting of former Afghan national army personnel, who crossed over in border areas of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa after Afghan Taliban captured power in Afghanistan in August 2021. These elements have been armed and allowed to man the check posts of the army and police in the infested areas. The people are protesting their presence, as they indulge in extortion and harass the local population.

The Afghan Taliban are aware of the presence of these lashkars on its border with Pakistan. Pakistan may already be using these militias to destabilise the Afghan Taliban, but so far without success. Therefore, the Afghan Taliban are unlikely to accede to Pakistan's demands for action against TTP. And hence, attempts by the intelligence chief of Turkiye and deputy secretary of Qatar's National Security Council, who met Afghan leaders in Kabul and Kandahar recently before travelling to Pakistan, to mediate between the two countries are unlikely to resolve the differences. Earlier, similar attempts by China at Urumqi in Xinjiang in April too did not produce any favourable results. China remains upset that its ambition to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Kabul to facilitate movement of extracted minerals from Afghanistan remains a pipe dream due to continued threat to its interests in Pakistan.

Therefore, Indian security analysts were grossly mistaken in expressing concern about the "mutual defence pact" signed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye in Mecca on August 7 and renamed the Mecca Defence Alliance on August 31. Already, Pakistan and Turkiye are refusing to become combatants in the Saudi war against Houthi rebels, who, while making progress on the ground in Yemen, have also targeted Saudi economic interests in the Red Sea and on the mainland besides damaging crucial oil infrastructure.

Turkiye has only agreed for "technical support", which could mean air defence systems, counter-drone technology, electronic warfare capabilities and maritime security, without committing troops on the ground. In Pakistan, the reality is that the support for Iran and by default to its proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis, cuts across the Shia-Sunni divide. Hence, apart from making big statements in support of the security of Saudi Arabia to keep it in good humour, it will have to think hard before committing boots on the ground. Meanwhile, Houthis have issued a dire warning to both the countries saying that "if Turkiye and Pakistan become involved, we will strike them with an iron fist".

Hence, most probably, the Mecca Defence Alliance would meet the same fate as the Board of Peace and Abraham Accords that were touted by the US President Donald Trump as the way forward for a secured and peaceful West Asia. The reality is that none of these pacts/agreements/alliances address the crucial issues of rights of Palestinians, military aggressions by Israel backed by the US against its neighbours and countries in West Asia.

At that time, the US had peddled the narrative that the only issue left in the region was dealing with Iran, which the US and its lackey Israel believed would be on its knees once they unleashed their combined firepower based on intelligence that they had gathered over the years. However, in the ongoing war, the imperial ego of the US stands badly bruised with significant and mounting losses to its military assets in the region, which has reduced its leverage for forcing the outcomes that it had hoped at the time of launching the war. The fate of Israel is no different. In fact, most of the US' bases in West Asia have become non-operational and perhaps beyond repair.

Its blatant support for Israel, which is accused of "genocide" of Palestinians in Gaza, its Arab allies in the region fearing domestic upheaval, are unwilling to join the security architecture of 'Abraham Accords'. Cutting across countries, the people in West Asia want an end to Israeli interference and the US backing to its aggressions.

The trajectory of the US-Iran war has been escalatory and unpredictable and hence the possibility of more instability in the region. Pakistan may soon get sucked into this conflict due to its heavy dependence on the US and Saudi Arabia for supporting its failing economy. For India, the conflict has become a minefield. One wrong step could suck the country in the conflict, which no Indian wants.