Kirana Hills nuclear site: Pak nukes are under the scanner

Operation Sindoor has put a sensitive issue back in the spotlight -- what to do with Pakistan's nuclear weapons? With massive strikes on Pakistan's terror sites and air bases, India has surely called Pakistan's nuclear bluff. Never has one nuclear power struck so hard at another nuclear power. The speculation about India hitting Kirana Hills nuclear site in Pakistan, which many claim houses Pakistan's nuclear command or tactical nuclear weapons, did not fade despite the Indian military's denial. Sighting of a US nuclear emergency aircraft flying near the area fuelled the chatter that India's strike must have led to fears about radioactive leakage. Days later, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that there was no radiation leak or release from any nuclear facility in Pakistan.

A recent statement by defence minister Rajnath Singh has brought the issue of Pakistan's nuclear weapons into public discourse. Calling Pakistan a rogue nation with nukes, Rajnath Singh said Thursday its nuclear arsenal should be placed under the watch of the IAEA, and stressed that Islamabad’s nuclear blackmail failed to deter India’s response to terrorism under Operation Sindoor. Singh’s comments came soon after the PM drew a new red line, stressing that Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail will no longer work and India would continue to give cross-border kinetic responses to terror attacks.

While India has settled the issue of nuclear blackmail by Pakistan, the risk of a nuclear clash between the two countries can never be ruled out. India follows a no-first-use principle while Pakistan intends its nukes as purely a deterrent against India.


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The mystery of Kirana Hills
An ironic comment from an Indian military official too fuelled the speculation about India striking Kirana Hills. Air Marshal A K Bharti, director general of air operations for the Indian Air Force, when asked at a press briefing if India had struck Kirana Hills, said, “Thank you for telling us that Kirana Hills houses nuclear installations. We didn’t know about it. We have not hit Kirana Hills and whatever is there.”

Many think American intervention must have come due to India's strike at Kirana Hills as previous statements by President Donald Trump and V-P JD Vance indicated the US was not interested in intervening in Operation Sindoor.

Did India make a signal strike at Pakistan's nuclear facility as a warning?

Kirana Hills has been linked to Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions since the 1980s, a period when the country was actively developing its nuclear capabilities in response to regional security dynamics, particularly India’s nuclear advancements. Between 1983 and 1990, Pakistan conducted a series of "cold tests" or subcritical nuclear tests at Kirana Hills. These tests, which simulate nuclear explosions without triggering a fission reaction, were critical for Pakistan to refine its nuclear warhead designs without the need for large underground test sites. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, in a 2023 report, identified Kirana Hills as a subcritical nuclear test site, noting its use in developing Pakistan’s nuclear program during this period.

If India indeed hit Kirana Hills, it will indicate India's readiness to take out Pakistan's nuclear weapons if it fears during a conflict that Pakistan is about to use them against India.

Can America intervene?
The US intervened in Operation Sindoor after Pakistan felt helpless in the face of massive missile attacks that disabled its air bases. India halted the operation only after Pakistan called India and requested it to do so.

Will the US intervene if there is a risk of Pakistan launching a nuclear strike? There is no certainty if the US will be able to do so but it certainly has been planning for a long time to take out Pakistan's nukes in case a risk, even during an India-Pakistan war, arises.

It was reported by NBC News in 2011 that the US has a contingency plan to "snatch-and-grab" Pakistan's nuclear weapons, if and when the US President believes they are a threat to either America or its interests. Plans had been drawn up for dealing with worst-case scenarios in Pakistan, NBC news reported quoting several US officials, who said that ensuring security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons had long been a high US security priority even before 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Among the scenarios drawn by the report were Pakistan plunging into internal chaos, terrorists mounting a serious attack against a nuclear facility, hostilities breaking out with India, or Islamic extremists taking charge of the government or the Pakistan army.

In 2021, a Brookings article mentioned the American plan to capture Pakistan's nukes: "Indeed, since the shock of 9/11, Pakistan has come to represent such an exasperating problem that the U.S. has reportedly developed a secret plan to arbitrarily seize control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal if a terrorist group in Pakistan seemed on the edge of capturing some or all of its nuclear warheads," wrote Marvin Kalb. "When repeatedly questioned about the plan, U.S. officials have strung together an artful, if unpersuasive, collection of “no comments.”

An American snatch-and-grab plan may not seem feasible today when Pakistan has grown in military strength. However, India must have devised a secret plan to counter Pakistan's nuclear weapons during a war because without such a plan India would not have struck so deep inside Pakistan at so many of its air bases, a big enough provocation to trigger a nuclear war. The speculation about India's strike at Kirana Hills got wings because such a strike would signal India's capability to disable Pakistan's nukes and deter it from any impulsive action.

(With inputs from TOI)