Israel’s strike raises the real question: How near is Iran to nuclear weapons?

Early Saturday, Israel launched what it described as a “pre-emptive military strike” on Iran, with explosions reported across Tehran and a nationwide state of emergency declared as authorities warned citizens to brace for retaliation.

Sirens sounded across Israel warning of possible missile attacks from Iran, while smoke was seen rising over parts of the Iranian capital.

The strikes come amid intensifying confrontation over Iran’s nuclear programme and a broader military build-up in the region, including US naval deployments.


Despite decades of suspicion, Iran is not confirmed to possess nuclear weapons. However, recent international assessments show its capabilities have advanced significantly. The country is closer to that threshold than at any point in recent history, according to international watchdogs and security analysts.

Tehran has pursued nuclear technology for decades, accelerating its efforts during the 1980–1988 war with Iraq, when leaders saw atomic capability as a long-term security guarantee.

Today, the core concern is uranium enrichment. UN’s nuclear watchdog, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), says Iran holds about 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity, which is only a short technical step away from weapons-grade levels of roughly 90%.

It is noted that such stockpiles, if further enriched, could theoretically be enough material for multiple bombs — though that still would not mean Iran actually has a functioning weapon.

Iran insists its nuclear programme is peaceful and meant for energy and civilian use. However, international inspectors have said they cannot fully verify the programme’s nature because of limited transparency and unresolved questions about past nuclear material at undeclared sites.

Even without a bomb, Iran already possesses one of the Middle East’s largest ballistic-missile arsenals, with several systems capable of striking US bases across the region.


Iran already possesses one of the Middle East’s largest ballistic-missile arsenals, with several systems capable of striking U.S. bases across the region — including medium-range missiles such as the Shahab‑3 and Sejjil, both designed to deliver heavy payloads over long distances and widely viewed by analysts as potential nuclear-capable delivery platforms if Iran were ever to weaponise its nuclear programme.

Why does Israel see a nuclear threat?

Israel has long viewed Iran’s nuclear progress as an existential risk. Its latest strike was described as an attempt "to remove threats" and pre-empt possible attacks.

The current crisis is the culmination of years of steadily intensifying confrontation between Iran and Israel, marked by repeated direct attacks and retaliatory strikes that have steadily raised the stakes.

In October 2024, Tehran launched roughly 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli targets — its largest direct assault up to that point — signalling a shift from proxy confrontation to overt military action. The escalation deepened in June 2025, when Iran fired more than 150 missiles and 100 drones toward Israel after Israeli forces struck Iranian nuclear facilities.

That same year saw a broader cycle of hostilities, with Israeli attacks on Iranian military and nuclear sites reportedly hitting over 100 locations and killing more than 1,000 people. This sequence of tit-for-tat strikes has reinforced Israeli fears that Iran’s advancing nuclear know-how could soon move from enrichment capability to actual weaponisation, raising the risk of pre-emptive military action.