Israel Iran War Day 38 Updates: US, Iran explore 45-day ceasefire as UAE intercepts attacks, oil tops $110 per barrel

The Iran-Israel war entered Day 38 on Monday with a parallel diplomatic push underway, as the United States, Iran and regional mediators discussed a proposed 45-day ceasefire that could pave the way for a permanent end to the conflict, even as fresh attacks, rising oil prices and stark warnings of escalation underscored the fragility of the moment.

According to an Axios report citing four US, Israeli and regional sources, the talks are centred on a two-phase framework.

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The first phase envisages a temporary 45-day ceasefire during which broader negotiations would be conducted, followed by a second phase aimed at a comprehensive agreement to end the war.

Deadline diplomacy amid threat of escalation

The urgency around the negotiations has intensified following US President Donald Trump’s extended deadline for Iran. Having initially set a 10-day window, Trump pushed the cutoff to Tuesday evening, saying there was “a good chance” of reaching a deal while warning of sweeping military action if diplomacy fails.

• In earlier remarks, he threatened “hell” if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, vowing to target key infrastructure such as bridges and power plants. Iran’s parliament speaker responded that such “reckless moves” would mean “our whole region is going to burn.”
• The Axios report said contingency plans for a large-scale US-Israeli bombing campaign targeting Iran’s energy facilities are already in place, with the deadline extension intended to give diplomacy a final opportunity.

Trump warns Iran could be 'taken out' on Tuesday night

Trump sets final deadline for Iran

• U.S. President Donald Trump said there will be no further extension to the deadline for Iran, with Tuesday marking the final cutoff after it was pushed to 8 pm Washington DC time; he called the latest proposal “significant” but “not good enough.”
• Trump warned that the West Asia conflict could end quickly if Iran complies, but cautioned of serious consequences otherwise, saying, “I am very upset, they are going to pay a big price for that,” while reiterating that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains the core objective.
• Despite the tough stance, he struck a cautiously optimistic note, saying U.S. negotiators are dealing with counterparts who are “reasonable” and “not as radicalized,” even as Tehran continues to reject the earlier 15-point peace proposal.
• He also confirmed receiving Iran's counter-proposal and termed it "not good enough."

South Pars gas field hit again

• Iranian media reported attacks on facilities at the South Pars natural gas field on Monday, with semiofficial agencies blaming the United States and Israel, though neither country has confirmed involvement.
• The strike on the key energy site in southern Iran follows earlier Israeli action at South Pars, after which Tehran had stepped up targeting of Gulf Arab oil and gas infrastructure.
• Donald Trump has warned of potential strikes on critical infrastructure such as power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, raising fears of further escalation.

Two-phase ceasefire proposal and sticking points

Behind the scenes, negotiations are being conducted through intermediaries from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, along with indirect exchanges between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The proposed first phase would involve a 45-day ceasefire, potentially extendable, while the second phase would seek to formalise a lasting settlement.

Key sticking points include Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, both seen as crucial leverage. Mediators are exploring limited confidence-building steps by Tehran during the ceasefire period, alongside assurances from Washington that any truce would not collapse into renewed conflict.

Iran has warned that any attacks on civilian infrastructure would trigger retaliatory strikes on key facilities in Israel and Gulf states, raising fears of wider regional fallout.

UAE air defences activated amid widening conflict

Even as diplomacy continues, hostilities expanded geographically. The United Arab Emirates said its air defence systems were responding to a missile and drone attack.

The defence ministry said systems “are actively engaging with missiles and UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) threats,” indicating active interception efforts.

Also read: Iran issues strict warning to Trump, says will respond 'in kind' to any US attacks

Oil prices surge as supply fears mount

Global markets reflected the intensifying conflict, with crude oil prices opening sharply higher.

North Sea Brent crude rose 1.16 percent to $110.30 per barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate climbed 1.86 percent to $113.62 per barrel, amid concerns over supply disruptions and damage to energy infrastructure.

Israeli strikes in Lebanon, Haifa hit by missile

Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed at least 15 people and wounded 39, according to Lebanese officials.

• In Beirut’s Jnah neighbourhood, a strike killed at least five people and wounded 52, while another in Ain Saadeh town east of the capital killed three and injured three others. In Kfar Hatta in the south, seven people, including a four-year-old girl, were killed.
• Meanwhile, a missile fired from Iran struck a residential building in Israel’s northern city of Haifa, injuring four people. The Israeli military described it as a “direct impact of a missile.”

Conflicting claims over US rescue mission

Confusion persisted over a US military rescue operation in Iran. Trump said a missing airman from a downed F-15 fighter jet had been recovered in a “daring” and “miraculous” mission involving “dozens” of aircraft, adding the crew member was “seriously wounded.”

• Iran’s military, however, said the operation had been “completely foiled.”
• US media reports indicated that American commandos had entered deep into Iranian territory using an abandoned airport in southern Isfahan province. According to The New York Times and CBS, two aircraft meant to evacuate the airman were left stranded and destroyed to prevent capture.

Strikes on Iranian infrastructure, OPEC+ response

Iranian state media reported that a US-Israeli strike hit the Qasem Soleimani International Airport in the country’s southwest, signalling continued targeting of strategic sites.

Amid the turmoil, OPEC+ agreed to raise production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day from May but warned that repairing damaged energy infrastructure is costly and “takes a long time,” suggesting prolonged supply constraints.

Easter overshadowed by war

The conflict cast a shadow over Easter, with Pope Leo XIV urging “those who have the power to unleash wars” to “choose peace.”

“We are growing accustomed to violence, resigning ourselves to it, and becoming indifferent. Indifferent to the deaths of thousands of people,” he said.

In Jerusalem, Israeli authorities imposed restrictions on access to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, and the usually crowded Old City streets remained subdued.