US–Iran War Day 53: Last hours for peace? Ceasefire nears expiry as Trump warns 'bombs will go off' & Iran threatens Hormuz; Markets watch nervously

The US–Iran war entered day 53 on Tuesday amid rising tensions, as a fragile ceasefire neared its expiry and uncertainty grew over planned peace talks in Pakistan.

Both the United States and Iran signaled they were prepared for renewed conflict if negotiations fail, heightening fears of further escalation in a war that has already shaken the Middle East and rattled global markets. Here are the key updates:

Trump's denial on truce

• US President Donald Trump says administration is weighing a currency swap with UAE to help bolster finances of Mideast ally rattled by war.
• Trump says US stopped ship delivering Chinese 'gift' to Iran
• He also says he does not want to extend ceasefire
• US military 'raring to go', Trump says

Will Iran, US come to Islamabad for peace talks? Unclear

• Vice President JD Vance has not departed for Iran talks, a White House official told Reuters, adding that he is participating in additional policy meetings.
• Pakistan says ceasefire ends at 2350 GMT Tuesday
• Military forces board sanctioned oil tanker in Indian Ocean, Pentagon says
• Pakistan says waiting for Iran's formal response on US talks attendance
• US forces board oil tanker previously sanctioned for smuggling Iranian crude oil in Asia, reports AP citing American Defence Department
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman says "no final decision" on whether to attend ceasefire talks

Iran will respond decisively to any renewed hostile action, senior commander says

• Iran's armed forces are ready to deliver an "immediate and decisive response" to any renewed hostile action by its ‌adversaries, ⁠a senior ⁠Iranian military commander said on Tuesday according to semi-official Tasnim news agency.
• Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said Tehran retained ‌the upper hand in the military field, including in the ⁠management of the Strait of Hormuz, and would not allow the U.S. president to "create false narratives over the situation on the ground."

Scam messages offering ships safe transit through Hormuz, security firm warns

• Fraudulent messages promising safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for cryptocurrency have been sent to some shipping companies whose vessels are stranded west of the waterway, Greek maritime risk management firm MARISKS has warned.
• The U.S. has maintained its blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then re-imposed its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed before war broke out in the Middle East.
• Amid ceasefire talks, Tehran, which controls the chokepoint, has proposed tolls on vessels to safely transit.
• MARISKS on Monday issued an alert warning shipowners that unknown actors, claiming to represent Iranian authorities, had sent some shipping companies a message demanding transit fees in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin or Tether, for “clearance”.
• "These specific messages are a scam," the firm said, adding the message was not sent by Iranian authorities.
• There was no immediate comment from Tehran.
• Hundreds of ships and about 20,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Gulf.

US positive on Iran deal but talks still uncertain as ceasefire end nears

• The United States expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran would go ahead in Pakistan and a senior Iranian official said Tehran was considering joining, but significant hurdles and uncertainty remained as the end of a ceasefire approached.
• U.S. President Donald Trump wants an agreement that would prevent further oil price rises and stock markets shocks but has insisted Iran cannot have the means to develop a nuclear weapon.
• Tehran hopes to leverage its control of the Strait of Hormuz to strike a deal that averts a restart of the war, eases sanctions but does not impede its nuclear program.
• The Iranian official, speaking to Reuters, said Tehran was "positively reviewing" its participation in talks, despite earlier ruling ‌them out, but stressed no ⁠decision had ⁠been made.
• A Pakistani source involved in the discussions said there was momentum for talks to recommence on Wednesday and Trump could attend in person, or virtually, if a deal were to be signed.
• "Things are moving forward and the talks are on track for tomorrow," the source said on Tuesday on the condition of anonymity.

Trump says it is 'highly unlikely' to extend ceasefire with Iran

• US President Donald Trump said it is “highly unlikely” that the ceasefire will be extended, warning: “If the ceasefire expires, then lots of bombs will start going off.”
• Washington said Vice President JD Vance is ready to return to Islamabad for a second round of talks.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the United States of breaching the ceasefire through a naval blockade.
• “We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats… we have been preparing to show new cards on the battlefield,” he said.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also warned it could target vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil.

Maritime Tensions Rise in Strait of Hormuz

• The US has accused Iran of harassing ships in the strait, while Tehran says Washington’s blockade is illegal.
• Shipping monitor Lloyd’s List reported more than 20 Iranian “shadow vessels” passing through the area despite US restrictions.
• Trump insisted the pressure campaign would continue: “The blockade is absolutely destroying Iran and will not end until there is a ‘DEAL’.”

Economic Pressure Mounts Inside Iran

• In Tehran, residents described a worsening economic situation despite a temporary lull in fighting.
• “Let’s see what happens by Tuesday,” said a doctor.
• Another resident said: “The economy is horrible.”

Parallel Israel–Lebanon Ceasefire Remains Fragile

• A separate truce between Israel and Lebanon, involving Hezbollah, also held uneasily.
• New talks are scheduled in Washington, even as sporadic violence continues and tensions remain high along the border.
• The United Nations Security Council condemned the killing of a French peacekeeper in southern Lebanon.

Nuclear Dispute Complicates Negotiations

• A major sticking point remains Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile.
• While Trump claimed Tehran agreed to hand it over, Iran denied this.
• Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said: “The stockpile is not going to be transferred anywhere… it was never raised as an option.”

Indian markets open in green

• India’s equity markets opened on a positive note on day 53 of the US–Iran war, even as global uncertainty kept investor sentiment cautious amid the approaching ceasefire deadline.
• The BSE Sensex rose 212.15 points, or 0.27%, to 78,732.45 in early trade, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 9.70 points, or 0.04%, to open at 24,374.55 at 9:15 am.

Markets Show Early Resilience Despite Global Uncertainty

• While domestic equities showed initial strength, global cues remained mixed.
• Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.11% at 49,496.22, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite edged lower, reflecting investor caution globally.

Ceasefire Uncertainty Weighs on Sentiment

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, emphasized that markets are highly sensitive to developments around the ceasefire.

“With the truce period nearing expiry, uncertainty has heightened around the next phase of negotiations and the outlook for further diplomatic engagement. Market participants remain focused on whether the ceasefire will be extended or if tensions could resurface, which may significantly influence near-term sentiment.”

Gold Faces Pressure Amid Mixed Signals

Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, noted that gold prices are under pressure as traders assess conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran.

“Gold prices edged lower as uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and upcoming macro events kept sentiment cautious.”

He added: “Markets remained on edge over whether fresh peace talks would materialize before the ceasefire expires this week, with conflicting signals from both sides adding to volatility.”

Technical View: Nifty in Consolidation Phase

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, highlighted ongoing indecision in the market.

“Benchmark indices witnessed a volatile trading session. After volatile activity, the Nifty closed 11 points higher, while the Sensex was up 27 points.”

He noted sectoral trends:

• Buying seen in PSU banks, energy, and media stocks
• Capital markets index declined 1.19%

“On the daily chart, it has formed a small candle, indicating confusion between bulls and bears.”

"Benchmark indices witnessed a volatile trading session. After volatile activity, the Nifty closed 11 points higher, while the Sensex was up 27 points. Among sectors, buying was seen in key PSU banks, energy, and media stocks, while the capital markets index fell the most, falling 1.19%. Technically, after the intraday rally, the market witnessed some profit booking at higher levels. On the daily chart, it has formed a small candle, indicating confusion between bulls and bears," Chouhan said.

Key Levels to Watch for Nifty 50

Chouhan noted that Nifty 50 is currently trading near the 24,300-24,400 zone, continuing its phase of consolidation after the recent recovery. The index is holding above key support levels, indicating underlying strength, although upside momentum remains capped in the 24,450-24,500 range, which continues to act as a strong resistance zone.

"From a technical perspective, a sustained breakout above 24,500 will be crucial to extend the upmove towards the 24,800-25,000 levels. On the downside, 24,300-24,250 (previous swing lows) serve as immediate support, followed by the 24,100-24,000 zone, which remains a key psychological and demand area," he said.

Inputs from agencies