Iran unlikely to concede ground on Hormuz as Trump indicates continued blockade: Analysis

A study by Think Tank- Institute for the Study of War has pointed out that Tehran is unlikely to bend any further in its fresh proposals to the US on the Strait of Hormuz. According to ISW, the hardline position advocated by IRGC boss Major General Ahmad Vahidi is now the dominating point of view in Tehran.

The analysis says that Iran appears unwilling to concede control over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. Mainstream Iranian politicians are consolidating around the decision to avoid discussing the nuclear issue before the United States lifts the naval blockade on Iranian ports, which was Vahidi's preferred policy outcome.

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ISW says that there appears to be limited opposition to Vahidi within other factions of the Islamic Regime. According to the analysis, the Iranian regime is likely attempting to modify and legitimize its plan to exert sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz by including Oman in a scheme to collect tolls on shipping through the Strait. This would enable Iran to present a "new proposal" to the United States without compromising on any Iranian red lines.

The regime is also exploring methods like getting Houthis in Yemen to attack vessels that transit th\rough the Bab el Mandeb Strait in an effort to put pressure on the US to lift the naval blockade.

ISW says that Iran has also used the ceasefire to reorganize and regenerate its missile and drone forces.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump on Wednesday described the US naval blockade against Iran as "genius," asserting that Tehran would have to concede defeat while ruling out any agreement unless it abandons its nuclear ambitions.

"The blockade is genius. The blockade has been 100% foolproof. It shows how good our Navy is, I can tell you that. Nobody's going to play games. We have the greatest military in the world and I built much of it during my first term and we've been building it since and the greatest anywhere in the world, nobody even close," Trump said.

Trump stressed that any deal would hinge on nuclear concessions from Iran. "They've come a long way. The question is whether or not they're going to go far enough. So at this moment, there will never be a deal unless they agree that there will be no nuclear weapons," he said.

Earlier, in an exclusive interview with Axios, Trump indicated that the blockade which is being used as a key tool to pressure Iran over its nuclear programme would continue.

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"The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can't have a nuclear weapon," Trump told Axios.

According to Axios, Trump rejected Iran's proposal to first reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade before holding nuclear talks. Instead, he has insisted that Iran address US concerns before any easing of restrictions.

The report added that while Trump currently views the blockade as his primary leverage, he could consider military action if Iran does not agree to negotiations.