Iran threatens painful response if US renews attacks

WASHINGTON/DUBAI: Iran said on Thursday it would respond with "long and painful strikes" on U.S. positions if Washington renewed attacks, and also reasserted its control over the Strait of Hormuz, complicating U.S. plans for a coalition to reopen the waterway. Two months into the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, the vital sea channel remains closed, choking off 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies. That has sent global energy prices surging and heightened concerns about the risks of an economic downturn. Efforts to resolve the conflict have hit an impasse, with a ceasefire in place since April 8 but Iran still blocking the strait in response to a U.S. naval blockade of Iran's oil exports, the country's economic lifeline. U.S. President Donald Trump is slated to receive a briefing on Thursday on plans for a series of fresh military strikes on Iran to compel it to negotiate an end to the conflict, a U.S. official told Reuters. Such options have long been part of U.S. planning but reports of the proposed briefing, first issued by news site Axios late on Wednesday, initially spurred big gains in oil prices, with the benchmark Brent crude contract hitting more than $126 a barrel at one point. It later slipped back to around $114.

Any U.S. attack on Iran, even if limited, will usher in "long and painful strikes" on U.S. regional positions, a senior Revolutionary Guards official said.

"We've seen what happened to your regional bases, we will see the same thing happen to your warships," Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi was quoted by Iranian media as saying.


IRAN AIMS TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER STRAIT
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written message to Iranians that Tehran would eliminate "the enemies' abuses of the waterway" under new management of the strait, indicating that the country intended to maintain its hold over it.

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"Foreigners who come from thousands of kilometres away...have no place there except at the bottom of its waters," he said.

Brent prices have doubled since the war began on February 28, driving inflation and sending pump prices to politically painful levels worldwide.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that if the disruption caused by the closure dragged on through mid-year, global growth would fall, inflation would rise and tens of millions more people would be pushed into poverty and extreme hunger.

"The longer this vital artery is choked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage," he told reporters in New York. Trump faces a formal U.S. deadline on Friday to end the war or make the case to Congress for extending it. However, analysts and congressional aides said they expect him to either notify Congress that he plans a 30-day extension or simply disregard the deadline.

RANGE OF OPTIONS
As well as blocking almost all but its own shipping through the strait, Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel and at U.S. bases, infrastructure and U.S.-linked companies in Gulf states. Another plan to be shared with Trump involves using ground forces to take over part of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it to commercial shipping, Axios said. Trump is also considering extending the U.S. blockade on Iran or declaring a unilateral victory, officials have said.

Also Read: Iran’s Khamenei vows to protect ‘nuclear, missile capabilities’ as Trump pushes deal; flags ‘new phase’ in Gulf & Hormuz

In a sign the U.S. was also envisaging a scenario where hostilities cease, the State Department cable invited partner countries to join a new coalition called Maritime Freedom Construct (MFC) to enable ships to navigate the strait. "The MFC constitutes a critical first step in the establishment of a post-conflict maritime security architecture for the Middle East," said the cable, which was due to be delivered orally to partner nations by May 1.

France, Britain and other countries have held talks on contributing to such a coalition but said they were willing to help open the Strait only when the conflict ends.

LEBANON ISSUE
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri held a phone call on Thursday to discuss developments in Lebanon and the region, as well as the Islamabad negotiations process.

Araqchi said halting Israeli attacks on Lebanon formed part of the Iran–U.S. ceasefire understanding and would remain a key issue in any future process, according to his Telegram account. A shaky ceasefire is in place in Lebanon, limiting clashes between Israel and Iran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.

Mediator Pakistan was trying to avoid escalation while the U.S. and Iran exchange messages on a potential deal, a Pakistani source said on Wednesday. Trump has said Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, while Tehran says its nuclear ambitions are peaceful.

Iran's latest offer for resolving the war would set aside discussion of its nuclear program until the conflict is formally ended and shipping issues resolved.

That did not meet Trump's demand to tackle the nuclear issue at the outset.