Greed feeds instability around Eurasia

The unpredictable war in Europe, an increasingly aggressive China and the point of no return on the nuclear front for North Korea have fuelled a new arc of instability, which spreads through Eurasia and is leading to extraordinary hikes in defence spending, even as the post-Covid world faces economic stress.

The total global spending on defence crossed $2 trillion last year — with the US, China and India at top spots — and all available data indicates that the number will easily be surpassed in 2023. Over the next five years, as Germany, Japan and India look at scaling up firepower, arms factories will be working overtime to meet demands for a variety of destructive weaponry — from stealth fighter jets to artificial intelligence-enabled swarm drones, air defence systems, maritime force multipliers and beyond.

Here’s a look:


European cauldron
The unexpected Russia-Ukraine conflict, which commenced with a lighting seize of Kiev in February 2022 and dissipated as quickly into a grinding and casualty-intensive battle for territory, has thrown Europe its biggest security challenge since the Cold War.

Russia, which was the world’s fifth largest defence spender (at $65.9 billion) in 2021, according to data shared by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, has put an all-of-nation effort behind the war, mobilising not just reserve soldiers but scaling up production of missiles, armoured vehicles and drones as it faces a NATO-supported Ukrainian force. In 2023, Moscow plans to spend $83.5 billion on its defence forces — a massive spike that will go towards arming troops and replenishing ammunition stocks.

The Russian challenge has also led to other European powers having a relook at defence preparedness, with Germany being first off the blocks, announcing a $106 billion special fund that would go towards rearming its forces. The special fund is expected to be disbursed over the next five years and will be over and above its regular defence spending.

France, which is a major global weapons supplier and has its hands full when it comes to exports of cutting-edge systems like the Rafale fighter jets, has announced a $3 billion hike in its defence spending for 2023, a 7.8% hike over the last year. The bulk of the French budget will go towards procuring new weapons.

The UK, isolated from European economy after Brexit but still a vital NATO partner, has pledged to double its defence spending to $120 billion by 2029. The increased money is expected to be invested into drone and counter-drone capabilities and enhancing the island nation’s artillery firepower.

Other smaller European states, most of them NATO members, have pledged to increase defence spending to 2% of the national GDP after the Ukraine crisis. New applicants to the security alliance — Sweden and Finland — too will look to boost defence spending by 2%.

Aid to Ukraine
At the centre of the war, Ukraine, which relied majorly on Russian origin arms and equipment, has received support from across the western world in the form of weapons, financial assistance and humanitarian missions. According to the Kiel institute, till October 2022, Ukraine got assistance worth $99 billion, most of it from the United States. Faced with a war that threatens its very existence, Ukraine itself will spend $30 billion on defence in 2023 — which amounts to a whopping 44% of its entire annual budget.

Asian unease
As Europe feels the heat from Russia, Asia is facing the threat of an increa singly assertive China that seems to be willing to open all fronts – from territorial borders with India to disputed islands with Japan and the everhanging threat of an invasion of Taiwan. Ending decades of defence strategy that relied on American deployments, Japan has announced that it will increase spending on arming its troops to double in the next five years. This will give Japan a $314 billion war chest to shore up defences against the twin threats of China and North Korea. Japan is looking to forge new defence technology partnerships, including plans to produce new stealth fighter jets with European partners and increasing its naval capabilities.

While China has shown that it will not back down on ever-expanding territorial claims, North Korea announced itself as a nuclear weapons state in 2022, pledging an exponential increase in production of nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles in 2023.

South Korea is planning to increase defence spending by 6.8% annually over the next five years to counter North Korea’s extraordinary investment into missiles and nuclear weapons. Closer coordination with the US forces in the region is also expected to come at the cost of shoring up capabilities of its armed forces. Even smaller nations like the Philippines, which has an annual defence outlay of $4.8 billion, are planning to increase spending at an annual rate of 8% in the coming years. India, which is the second biggest defence spender in Asia, increased its spending by 10% in 2022, reaching $70.6 billion. The increase was mostly on account for China that has kept the Line of Actual Control alive with the deployment of thousands of troops. Ongoing transgressions and the violent clash at Tawang in December are likely to ensure that in 2023, the defence allocation will receive yet another bump up.