Conflict with India could destroy Pak military, if not state: Declassified 1993 CIA documents

Pakistan's military leadership probably believes that another conflict with India could destroy the Pakistani military, if not the entire state, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) said in a secret report in 1993, which has recently been declassified.

In a detailed assessment of the India, Pakistan military balance, economic growth and political atmosphere, the US agency estimated that the chances of an all-out conflict are only 20%, but this could be upended by events like a "spectacular terror outrage" that one side believed the other abetted. The 1993 National Intelligence Estimate titled 'India-Pakistan: Prospects for War in the 1990s', published by the National Security Archive after a declassification appeal, said India had no strategic interest in initiating a war and that Pakistan had lost the previous engagement and would be worried that a conflict could destroy the state. The assessment also factored in nuclear weapons that were then under development by both states and said that "Pakistan sees nuclear weapons primarily as a deterrent and as insurance for its survival if a conflict developed with conventionally superior India". While it considered the possibility of an all-out conflict low, the assessment spelt out several scenarios in which an escalating confrontation could be triggered. Besides a spectacular terror attack, these included Indian military action.

"An Indian military cross-border action, for example, to close infiltration routes along the Line of Control or to punish Pakistan for supporting terrorism," it said.


The CIA also said that if India escalates its conventional superiority over Pakistan - as has been the case for the past two decades - the possibility of a nuclear threat could be exercised. "Rapid Indian military improvements would strain Pakistan's ability to remain competitive. Islamabad would feel even more threatened by India's growing military edge and would rely more heavily on nuclear deterrence. As a last resort, a desperate government in Islamabad also might consider an extreme measure such as openly deploying nuclear weapons," the CIA said in the secret 1993 report.