Chance of a two-pronged war is remote as bilateral ties with China are on upswing

NEW DELHI: IAF on Thursday said it simply does not have the requisite number of fighters to simultaneously take on both China and Pakistan, grappling as it is with just 33 squadrons when at least 42 are required to be comfortable against a collusive threat.

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Handling Pakistan alone is not a problem, even though it's now getting eight more F-16s from the US on the specious ground of counter-terrorism despite India's strong protest. Pakistan will now have over 80 F-16s, with superior weapons packages compared to Indian Sukhoi-30MKI fighters.




In simplistic terms, IAF will have to deploy two Sukhois to tackle each F-16. IAF, of course, has already inducted over 200 of the 272 Sukhois contracted from Russia for $12 billion.

"The F-16s do make a difference, make our lives more difficult. But they do not significantly alter the air power edge we have," said IAF vice-chief Air Marshal B S Dhanoa, a veteran fighter pilot who flew several night sorties during the 1999 Kargil conflict.

"But our numbers are not adequate to execute a full air campaign in a two-front scenario," he added, candidly. China, for instance, can swiftly deploy 21 fighter squadrons against India from its eight airbases in Tibet and other airfields to their north.

But a two-front contingency is extremely remote, with bilateral ties with China on a firm upward trajectory. China, moreover, is enmeshed in its own territorial disputes in South and East China Seas as well as the ongoing "rebalance" of US military forces to Asia-Pacific.

IAF is banking heavily upon the induction of 36 French Rafale fighters - the over Rs 60,000 crore deal is in the final stages now - to plug some operational gaps. Pakistan will have to deploy two F-16s to tackle one Rafale.

But shrugging aside such comparisons, IAF is all set to conduct its mammoth high-voltage " Iron Fist" firepower demonstration on March 18 at Pokhran, which will be witnessed by President Pranab Mukherjee, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and foreign dignitaries, among others.

Incidentally, the defence and external affairs ministries have taken the collective decision to not invite defence attaches of Pakistan and China.

The message for Pakistan is also evident from Iron Fist's ominous motto: "Demonstrating the capability to punish. Weapons on target...on time". As many as 103 fighters, 59 helicopters and 19 aircraft will showcase their capability to take the war to an adversary with "ruthless precision" in day or night. "War, conflict or misadventure (like Kargil) takes place when the adversary doubts your deterrence. If you demonstrate your deterrence, there will be peace because he knows he will be hit very badly," said Air Marshal Dhanoa.

The Iron Fist blitzkrieg will demonstrate how air power can influence events on the ground, where nation states exist, and deter an adversary from even thinking of waging war.