Bangladesh: Will India have another Pakistan on its border?

Half a century after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, popularly known as Bangabandhu, led the movement for creation of Bangladesh which was part of Pakistan, his legacy is under attack. The symbolic act of protestors bringing down Rahman's statue points at rejection of his legacy by protestors and the opposition which would mean strengthening of pro-Pakistan sentiment in the country. This could present a challenging prospect for India which would have another hostile country on its border besides Pakistan and China. Already there is speculation about Pakistan's ISI fomenting the student protests which led to Hasina's ouster.

Pakistan and China trying to mount an anti-India regime?

The Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS), the student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, is said to be actively supported by the ISI in its effort to install a pro-Pakistan government in Bangladesh.


"The ISI-backed Jamaat-e-Islami had received substantial financial backing earlier this year to destabilise the Sheikh Hasina govt. A significant portion of this funding is believed to have originated from Chinese entities operating in Pakistan," an official disclosed to TOI.

Although Hasina tried to keep China in good humour, she was sensitive also to India's interests-an even-handendess which was not to China's liking. Interestingly, many leading figures of the Islamic student outfit managed to charm the western-affiliated NGOs by using jargon of democracy and rights.

The ICS has been under the surveillance of Indian intelligence agencies for an extended period, following the emergence of its active involvement in anti-India activities, including the propagation of a jihadist agenda in Indian territories adjacent to Bangladesh, TOI has reported. The ICS also operates in close coordination with the ISI-backed outfit, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), a Pakistan-based Deobandi terrorist group with an affiliate in Bangladesh. There exists visual evidence of ICS members undergoing training in Afghanistan and Pakistan. "The ultimate objective of Jamaat or ICS is to establish a Taliban-type govt in Bangladesh, and the ISI has been assuring them of their support in achieving this goal. Their proximity became flagrant in the wake of the strengthening ties between the Indian and Bangladeshi governments," an intelligence officer told TOI.

Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh as well as Bangladesh National Party (BNP) of Khaleda Zia, the main opposition party of the country, are known for their pro-Pakistan stance. Bangladeshi President Mohammed Shahabuddin has ordered the release of former prime minister Zia who has been in jail. She was sentenced to 17 years in prison for graft in 2018. The collapse of Hasina's government is seen as the return of Zia's party to power.

Hasina's son and former official adviser Sajeeb Wazed Joy has said in an interview that that the country might descend into chaos and could become the next Pakistan. He also feared that Hindus and Christians in the country could be targeted.

The four-term rule by Hasina's Awami League witnessed improving ties with India and a distancing from Pakistan. When Zia was the prime minister from 1991 to 1996, and again from 2001 to 2006, Bangladesh sided with Pakistan and promoted militancy in India's Northeast.

Why BNP's rise should worry India

Pakistan's ISI maintained a strong presence in Dhaka during BNP’s last years in power between 2001 and 2006 and was instrumental behind a series of terror attacks in India through terror groups. The insurgent groups from India’s Northeast operated out of bases in Bangladesh, allegedly under ISI’s patronage, during the BNP rule. After Hasina returned to power, she ordered a crackdown and handed over the insurgent leaders to India.

Ahead of elections in 2013, Bangladeshi intelligence agencies told India about ISI's efforts to re-energise terror groups in Bangladesh to support Tareque Zia, the exiled son of Khalida Zia, ET had reported. Tareque, who virtually ran the country during 2001-06 as a BNP leader, when his mother was serving her second term, was accused of maintaining close ties with ISI and terror operatives including Ulfa chief Paresh Baruah and mafia kingpin Dawood Ibrahim.

Again in 2019, ISI tried hard to facilitate return of pro-Pak BNP and radical Jamaat-e-Islami to power through selection of candidates and channelling of funds through its Dubai-based agents in the parliamentary elections, ET had reported. Pak High Commission's role in meddling in Bangladesh's internal politics ahead of polls came to light when Pakistani diplomats met top BNP leaders several times.

Bangladeshi terror outfit HuJI enjoyed close links with Pakistani militant organisations. Many of the ISI-sponsored perpetrators of terror attacks in India had either infiltrated through Bangladesh or escaped to the neighbouring country after the strikes. There were many other instances of ISI links with Bangladesh: ISI footing the election bill of Khaleda in 1991, a revelation made by none other than former ISI chief Assad Durani; NSCN cadres travelling to Pakistan from Dhaka in March 1996 for training in guerrilla warfare; an ISI-sponsored technical expert training Ulfa in operation and installation of communication equipment at a Nagaland camp; detaining of NSCN(I-M) chief T Muivah at Bangkok airport in January 2000 while returning from Karachi after allegedly inspecting an arms consignment; and the revelation of arrested All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) cadres that ISI had extended $20,000 assistance to the outfit, besides imparting arms training to eight ATTF cadres in 1997 at Kandahar, Afghanistan.

China too has all along been a close ally of the BNP. The 19-point political manifesto of the BNP is similar to the manifesto of Communist Party of China. China, which was opposed to liberation war in East Pakistan in 1971, only recognised Bangladesh after the assassination of Mujib and subsequently developed close ties with the Bangladesh Army. The Sino-Pak alliance has been staunch supporters of the BNP and the radical Jamaat-e-Islami.

Strain over defence ties

With a friendly Hasina government in power, India and Bangladesh had been ramping up defence ties. Just a month ago, Bangladesh had inked a deal with Indian defence shipyard GRSE in Kolkata to build an 800-tonne advanced ocean-going tug, in the first major deal inked under the $500-million line of credit for defence purchases extended by New Delhi to Dhaka, which was operationalized last year. The contract coincided with Navy chief Admiral Dinesh Tripathi’s four-day visit to Bangladesh to further consolidate defence ties and explore new avenues for maritime cooperation.

“Talks were underway for Bangladesh to buy Indian offshore patrol vessels as well as get spares for maintenance for its Russian-origin MiG-29 and Mi-17 helicopters. Apart from joint exercises and capacity-building programmes, Indian military establishments have been training Bangladeshi defence personnel for decades,” a source told TOI. Bangladesh has been buying most of its weapons from China.

Though military chief Gen Waker-Uz-Zaman who has taken control of the country is pro-India, presence of the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami in the interim government can put a strain on India-Bangladesh defence ties while the BNP coming to power after next elections will clearly make Bangladesh tilt away from India and towards Pakistan and China. In that scenario, India will also lose strategic dominance in the Bay of Bengal which it gained due to close friendship with the Hasina government.

With the possibility of Bangladesh once again actively promoting terror in India and siding with Pakistan and China, India could well have another Pakistan on its border which will pose a constant security challenge as well as erode India's staretgic power in the neighbourhood.

(With inputs from TOI and agencies)