Industry hopeful of RBI rate cut "very soon"; expects over 6.5pc GDP growth in FY26: PHDCCI

The industry is hopeful of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank "very soon" and expects India's economic growth at more than 6.5 per cent in the current financial year, PHDCCI Secretary General and CEO Ranjeet Mehta said on Tuesday. He also outlined three major challenges faced by the country's micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), including access to affordable finance; technology and market access.

"As far as rates are concerned, I think that RBI has definitely looked into it. They have reduced the repo rate. But we are, we are just waiting for the next RBI decision on this. And industry is hopeful that when inflation, we have seen the inflation data, which is within the zone of RBI, and we hope that there would be some kind of rate reduction in future, very soon," Mehta said.

The next review meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI is scheduled for June 4-6.


Mehta also shared that the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) has projected economic growth of over 6.5 per cent for the current fiscal ending March 31, 2026.

"We are looking at more than 6.5 per cent economic growth," Mehta said.

He was speaking on the sidelines of an event to release the 'SME Market Sentiment Index', based on the survey conducted on 3,000 pan-India SME firms across various manufacturing units.

The index suggests positive momentum in business activity for the period Q4 FY2025 (January-March) compared to the previous quarter Q3 FY2025 and a robust growth outlook for the next quarter (Q1 FY2026: April-June).

The value of SME Business Activity Index (SME-BAI) ranges from 0 to 100, where 50 is the base value. The index above 50 reflects an expansion of manufacturing activities compared to previous quarter values below 50 reflect a contraction in business activity. The index value of 50 suggests no change compared to the previous quarter, said the study.

The SME Business Activity Index (SME-BAI) recorded a robust 57.7 points, indicating significant expansion in manufacturing activities compared to the previous quarter.

"The idea of SME market sentiment index is to know the real result of the government schemes, various initiatives that the government of India is taking to boost the manufacturing, to boost our export and to help MSMEs to hand hold them.

"And there are majorly three challenges that our MSME are facing. One is affordable finance easily, whether that is available or not. Number two is the technology ... and the third challenge that we identified is the market access. Many SMEs, have made their products, but they do not have the wherewithal to market those and find customers," Mehta said.