India Inc sails past fourth-quarter estimates, but oil shock clouds outlook

Indian companies posted a surprise earnings beat for the ​three months ended March, as domestic ​activity hummed along boosted by consumption tax cuts and easy monetary policy, but ​the Iran war-led energy shock is expected to weigh on profitability.

As Indian markets slip to seventh place in market value rankings amid a record foreign fund exodus, analysts warn that elevated oil prices and supply chain disruptions linked ‌to the three-month-long ⁠Iran war ⁠threaten to derail the fragile recovery in corporate earnings.

India's top-50 listed companies posted single-digit percent profit growth for the eighth ​straight quarter.


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Net profit of Nifty 50 firms rose 6.6% year-on-year in the three months ended March 31, according ​to Kotak Institutional Equities, comfortably ahead of forecasts of a 2% growth.

Banks and financial companies, metal producers and oil marketing companies drove much of the earnings growth.

While stable asset quality and improving credit ​growth helped lenders, metal firms got a boost from rising global ⁠prices, and ‌oil refiners enjoyed favourable margins.

Firms beyond the blue-chips also did well.

Nomura's universe of ​256 companies posted ​a profit-after-tax rise of 18%, while 359 companies tracked by Motilal Oswal ⁠delivered a 16% growth. Both these lists include Nifty 50 constituents.

Mid-cap ​firms' earnings grew about 35%, while those for small-caps advanced nearly 20%, ​significantly outpacing larger peers and helping wider market indexes outperform benchmarks.

While earnings of automobile and telecom companies improved during the quarter gone by, IT firms' revenue growth stayed tepid amid mounting concerns over AI-driven disruption and pharmaceutical companies grappled with weakness in the U.S. generics market.

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Cement, consumer staple and durable goods makers showed signs of pressure from rising raw material and freight costs.

DARK CLOUDS AHEAD

The ‌path ahead for Asia's third-largest economy could be a rough one as the energy shock starts rippling across the economy, hurting activity and raising prices.

"Q4 may have ​marked a temporary ​relief, but does not ⁠yet signal improved momentum for quarters to come," Bernstein said, adding that persistently high commodity prices could pressure both corporate profitability and broader economic conditions.

A prolonged period of elevated crude prices could squeeze corporate ​margins, worsen the macroeconomic outlook and complicate monetary policy for a country that is the world's third-largest importer and consumer of crude oil.

Those concerns are already feeding into forecasts.

"Notwithstanding strong earnings for 4QFY26, consensus earnings estimates for FY27/28 have been revised lower," Nomura analysts led by Saion Mukherjee said, reflecting growing concerns over oil, commodities and the broader fallout from the Iran conflict.