US Stocks Today: US stocks fall as Iran war escalation sends oil prices up

Leading U.S. stock indexes traded lower on Monday following escalation of the conflict between ​the United States and Iran that pushed up crude prices and fuelled inflation concerns after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish statements in his Jackson Hole address the previous week, according to a Reuters report.

Traders now see more than a 60% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, up sharply from 41.4% a week earlier. Expectations rose after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said borrowing costs may need to increase if inflation fails to return to the central bank’s 2% target.

"He (Warsh) took any chance of ​a (rate) cut off the table," Thomas Kikis, head of markets, U.S. and Americas, at Standard Chartered told Reuters.


Warsh made the comments Friday at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, following a mixed run of economic data. While a recent consumer inflation report showed relatively mild price pressures in July, the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index came in hotter than expected.

The uncertainty around the rate outlook has increased the importance of the US jobs report due September 4. Warsh said recent employment data had not shown that underlying labour-market trends had “meaningfully improved.”

"Absent a material downside surprise, the onus is now on Warsh to ⁠deliver a September hike. Otherwise, he risks undermining some of the credibility he gained ​on Friday," analysts at BofA Global Research said in a note.

At 09:54 a.m. the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 350.75 points, or 0.65%, to 53,209.24, the S&P 500 shed 30.49 points, or 0.40%, to 7,681.27, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 77.11 points, or 0.29%, to 26,325.31.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were set to post monthly gains after two consecutive months of declines, while the Dow was on track for a fifth straight monthly advance.

Renewed US-Iran military clashes and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, lifting energy stocks. Brent crude gained nearly 1.71%, with Halliburton and Valero Energy rising 4.26% and 1.90%, respectively.

All S&P 500 sectors except energy traded lower. Utilities led declines, falling 1.7%, after changes to a California Senate bill did little to ease grid operators’ exposure to wildfire liabilities. PG&E plunged 18%, heading for its steepest one-day decline in more than six years if losses persisted.

Nvidia gained 0.28%, outperforming other megacap stocks. Chipmakers also advanced, with Intel up 1.21% and Texas Instruments gaining 0.9%.


"I continue to favor areas of the market linked to structural growth themes such as artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure," David Chao, global market strategist, Asia Pacific, at Invesco, told Reuters.


Declining stocks outpaced advancing shares by 1.84-to-1 on the NYSE, while the Nasdaq recorded a wider 2.03-to-1 ratio in favour of decliners.