US 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.6%, reaching highest level since 2002

Yields on the longest-dated US Treasury bond climbed for a sixth consecutive session on Tuesday, crossing another key threshold as a global debt-market selloff intensified, Bloomberg reported.

The 30-year yield rose above 5.61%, reaching its highest level since 2002 and moving further into territory common before the low-interest-rate era that followed the global financial crisis and pandemic. Elevated energy prices added to inflationary pressure, while heavy corporate-debt issuance weighed on the market.

The move marked the latest milestone in a months-long selloff across the $32 trillion Treasury market. Government bonds worldwide came under pressure as high oil prices linked to the Middle East war ripple through the global economy, prompting investors to expect further rate increases from central banks, including the Federal Reserve.


In the US, strong business activity and concerns over government debt added momentum to the sharpest Treasury selloff since President Donald Trump’s April 2025 tariff rollout rattled markets. The growth narrative largely remained intact on Tuesday, despite data showing weaker consumer confidence and a decline in job openings.

Paramount Skydance Corp. also launched its long-awaited investment-grade bond offering on Tuesday, representing the largest portion of a syndicated $52 billion financing package for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. The company aims to raise about $32 billion through the sale.

“We have the fifth-largest investment-grade deal on record,” said Monty Gandhi, a rates strategist at SMBC. “Some of this move in the long end is likely related to that.”

Citigroup Inc. strategists described the Treasury market as experiencing a “light buyer’s strike.” Yardeni Research, meanwhile, said the unwinding of the yen-funded carry trade—where investors borrow in Japan’s currency to purchase higher-yielding assets—was also contributing to the selloff.

Some investors, however, see opportunity amid the turmoil. Wall Street veteran Jim Bianco has turned bullish on Treasuries for the first time in six years, while longtime bond investor Chris Iggo expects a rebound after four difficult years. RBC BlueBay Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding told Bloomberg that the global bond-market selloff had gone too far.

Treasuries have lost 2.6% this year, according to a Bloomberg index, after gaining 6.3% last year. The losses have spread across maturities, with the 10-year yield reaching 5.28%, its highest level since 2007. The two-year yield stood near 4.93%, making it the last major maturity below 5%.

This time of year has historically been difficult for bonds. During the past decade, Treasuries posted a median decline of 0.9% in September and 0.7% in October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

September is already on course to be the worst for Treasuries since 2023. The continuing US-Iran war, fiscal concerns and a hawkish Fed have increased the risk that losses will extend into October.

“It’s been a train wreck in rates over September, and the pain trade may continue,” said Prashant Newnaha, strategist at TD Securities. “As long as there is no Middle East resolution, there is a risk that we see ongoing de-risking in fixed income, and it could spread to equities as well.”

October typically presents a “seasonal test” for Treasuries as bond issuance increases and investors return from the summer lull, said Masahiko Loo, senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Investment Management.

“Going into Thanksgiving, the combination of renewed Treasury supply, heavy credit issuance and relentless AI capex demand suggests competition for capital remains intense, keeping the risk of further Treasury volatility elevated,” Loo added.

(Disclaimer: This article is based on inputs from agencies. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)