US 10-year Treasury bonds hit 19-year high ahead of Fed rate decision

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield hitting its highest level since July 2007 as investors brace for what may be the first in a series of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve as it tries to tamp down inflation pressures.

Bond markets around the globe saw yields rise, in part due to continued pressure from rising oil prices, which have boosted expectations for central banks around the globe to raise interest rates.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 4.7 basis points to 5.008% after climbing to 5.041%, its highest since July 19, 2007, and was on track for its sixth advance in the past seven sessions.


The Telegraph reported the Bank of England was poised to announce this week that it will stop selling long-dated government bonds in order to free up cash for the government.

Crude prices were up about 2% as supply concerns were elevated after attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure left the kingdom's East-West Pipeline offline, extending gains after Libya said it may declare force majeure after protests suspended production at oil fields.

"Any inflation data that we've had, any news out of events that are happening overseas for the geopolitical concerns, anything that's budget-related outside the U.S. or in the U.S., everything keeps pointing in the same direction, there's been no relief at all," said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

"It's all basically the same type of story, a story that pushes yields up, there's been no catalyst to reverse the current momentum that we've seen in bond yields."

The yield on the 30-year bond added 4.5 basis points to 5.373% after earlier hitting 5.401%, its highest since June 13, 2007.

More supply will come to the market later on Tuesday when Treasury auctions $13 billion in 20-year bonds.

Expectations for a rate hike from the Fed have been steadily increasing in recent weeks, with markets now pricing in a 92.7% chance for a hike for at least 25 basis points at the central bank's policy announcement on Wednesday, according to CME FedWatch, up from 59.4% a week ago and 33.1% a month ago.

A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 34.5 basis points.

A decision to hike rates could leave new Chairman Kevin Warsh in a tight spot, as President Donald Trump picked Warsh with the explicit expectation that he would cut interest rates.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, gained 2.7 basis points to 4.661% after rising to 4.688%, its highest since July 5, 2024.

Markets are now pricing in nearly 100 basis points of hikes over the next 12 months, and Bank of America U.S. economist Aditya Bhave said in a note that he continues to expect 75 basis points worth of hikes from the Fed this year, and that by moving quickly, the central bank will have "a better chance of quelling inflation and keeping a lid on long-end rates."

Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen said he now expects two hikes of 25 basis points from the Fed this year, in September and December.

The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.418%, unchanged from Monday's close.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.377%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4% a year for the next decade.