Next market winners: Jefferies sees potential in data centers as hyperscalers race for AI capacity

The race among hyperscalers to secure data-center capacity is driving leased volumes to record levels, with third-party operators expected to play an increasingly important role in future infrastructure deployment, according to Jefferies analysts Jonathan Petersen, Brent Thill, Matthew Roberts and Jan Aygul.

North American non-commenced leases reached 25.5 GW in the second quarter of 2026, up 32% quarter over quarter and 346% year over year, Jefferies said in its report, “Race for Capacity is Driving Leased Volumes to Record Levels.”

While leased facilities account for only about 21% of installed hyperscaler capacity today, roughly 47% of future capacity plans are leased, compared with about 25% historically, according to the brokerage.


“A growing share of future infrastructure growth is expected to be delivered by third-party operators,” Jefferies said.

The brokerage said its latest Aterio data pull and second-quarter filings put North American committed future leased capacity at 25.5 GW, approaching the 29.0 GW of hyperscaler self-build capacity currently under construction.

Globally, the lease commitment book stands at 36.2 GW, up 31% quarter over quarter, with North America accounting for roughly 70% of the total, Jefferies estimated.

Leasing is becoming an increasingly important avenue for infrastructure deployment as power constraints, permitting challenges and longer development timelines continue to limit new supply. Jefferies said leasing remains “one of the most scalable avenues available” to support rapidly growing infrastructure requirements.

Capacity, not demand, is the constraint

The increase in lease commitments comes as hyperscaler capital spending continues to climb.

Combined capex for the Big 3 plus Meta and Oracle is estimated at $811 billion in calendar 2026 and $1.1 trillion in calendar 2027, up 82% and 36%, respectively, Jefferies said.

The demand signal is supporting that spending, with Big 3 Cloud growth accelerating to 47% year over year. Backlog rose $320 billion quarter over quarter to $2.332 trillion, up 188%.

Backlog has increased by $1.814 trillion since December 2023, roughly 3.3 times the $541 billion increase in capex, according to the brokerage.

“Capacity, not demand, is the binding constraint,” Jefferies said.

That spending has to translate into physical infrastructure. Hyperscaler lease disclosures indicate 25.5 GW of future leased capacity, alongside another 29 GW of self-build capacity under construction.

Taken together, Jefferies' data implies that future North American hyperscaler capacity is approximately 1.6 times the in-place estimated capacity of 33.4 GW.

Lease commitments provide demand visibility, but timing remains uncertain

Jefferies said its leased-GW estimates are derived from disclosed hyperscaler lease commitments that have yet to commence, with North American allocations based on company-specific revenue and asset disclosures.

The 25.5 GW lease pipeline should be viewed as an estimate of future capacity expected to come online, although the timing of individual projects remains uncertain. Projects could shift because of power procurement delays, supply-chain constraints or local development opposition, the brokerage said.

Even so, the scale of committed demand reinforces Jefferies' view that operators controlling power, land and near-term delivery capacity remain well positioned, particularly as hyperscalers prioritize “speed-to-power” in an increasingly supply-constrained environment.

Amazon leads hyperscaler-owned capacity

Amazon leads on every measure, with 20.6 GW built or building and 28.1 GW announced, Jefferies said, describing the pipeline as larger than any peer's entire self-build portfolio.

Across the Big 4, 25.7 GW is under construction against 26.5 GW active in North America, leaving a build pipeline nearly equal to the installed base.

Amazon carries the heaviest announced pipeline weighting, at 58% of self-build capacity, ahead of Google Cloud at 51%. Microsoft Azure is the most balanced across stages, Jefferies said.

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