Goldman raises Dutch TTF gas price view on slow Hormuz export recovery

Goldman Sachs raised its benchmark Dutch TTF gas price forecast for the last two quarters this year on the expectation of further delays to normalisation of LNG exports from the Gulf after recent escalation in Middle East hostilities.

The investment bank raised its TTF forecasts ‌for the ⁠third and ⁠fourth quarters this year to €60 and €53 per megawatt hour (MWh) respectively on Tuesday, up from previous projections of €41 and €40.

Its forecast for when Gulf LNG exports will normalise was pushed back to October from July.


The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub , trading around €59/MWh at 0755 ⁠GMT, had ‌hit its highest intraday level in four months at €60.66 on Monday.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday ⁠that they would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, opening a potential new front against the United States in its war with Iran and raising the threat to global energy supplies and trade beyond the Gulf.

The tightening of European gas balances and Europe's increased vulnerability to a cold shock in the winter raise ‌the risk that TTF might need to rise to €65/MWh, Goldman Sachs said in a note.

The bank expects North West Europe gas ⁠storage to be about 67% full by the start of winter around the end of October, down from its previous forecast of 74%, and 28% full by the end of March 2027, assuming temperatures are in line with the 10-year seasonal average.

The bank said it maintains a bearish 2028-2029 view on TTF at €19/€16 per MWh.