Global Market: Ueda’s Jackson Hole absence puts focus on BOJ’s September rate decision

Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura will represent Governor Kazuo Ueda at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual economic policy gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week, as investors closely watch for signals on the future path of monetary policy in Japan and the United States, Reuters reported.

The BOJ said on Wednesday that Ueda would not attend the meeting because of scheduling conflicts. Tamura will participate on his behalf, although he will not hold any media engagements during the gathering.

It is unusual for a BOJ board member to attend the Jackson Hole conference, which is generally attended by the central bank’s governor or one of its two deputy governors. Tamura, a former commercial banker, is regarded as one of the more hawkish members of the BOJ’s nine-member policy board and has advocated regular interest-rate increases to address risks of rising prices.


The focus at Jackson Hole is expected to be on new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is set to make his debut speech at the event. His comments on the outlook for U.S. monetary policy could have significant implications for Japan through movements in the yen and Japanese government bond yields, according to analysts.

Ueda’s absence is likely to shift attention to whether he will attend next week’s U.S.-hosted G20 finance leaders’ meeting in Asheville, North Carolina. The BOJ has not confirmed his participation, although U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has previously indicated that he expected to meet the Japanese central bank governor there.

Market participants are increasingly focused on whether the BOJ could accelerate the timing of its next interest-rate increase as inflationary pressures build. Expectations for a September hike have strengthened following a combination of U.S.-Japan discussions over the yen and signals from Bessent, with markets now pricing in a high probability of a move.

A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise its policy rate to 1.25% from 1% at its September 17-18 meeting. The move would follow the rate increase delivered in June.

Further clues could emerge on Thursday, when BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino is scheduled to deliver a speech and hold a news conference. His comments will be closely watched for indications of how policymakers assess inflation risks and the likelihood of another rate hike next month, Reuters reported.

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