Global Market: Klaas Knot tops list of potential Lagarde successors at ECB

France could support former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot to succeed Christine Lagarde as president of the European Central Bank as part of a broader deal that could see a French candidate appointed as the ECB's chief economist, according to sources cited by Reuters.

Lagarde's current term runs until October 2027, although speculation about a possible early departure has persisted for much of this year. The succession process is therefore beginning to attract attention across the eurozone.

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Knot, 59, is among the leading names being discussed. A monetary economist by training, he served as president of the Dutch central bank from 2011 to 2025 and spent 14 years on the ECB's Governing Council, giving him extensive experience in eurozone monetary policy.

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Knot's tenure on the ECB's rate-setting body included sharply contrasting relationships with its presidents. He was initially critical of Mario Draghi's aggressive monetary stimulus, particularly as the ECB expanded its efforts to lift inflation toward its 2% target. His opposition became more public in 2019 when Draghi secured support for another stimulus package despite significant resistance among policymakers.

Knot had, however, supported Draghi's commitment to preserving the euro during the sovereign debt crisis after initially expressing reservations. Under Lagarde, he became more closely aligned with the ECB's policy direction, although he was among the policymakers who pushed for tighter monetary policy as inflation accelerated in 2022.

He also chaired the Financial Stability Board from 2021, giving him experience in international financial regulation and coordination.

Another potential candidate is Pablo Hernández de Cos, 55, who has headed the Bank for International Settlements since 2025. He previously served as governor of the Bank of Spain from 2018 to 2024, overseeing the central bank through the pandemic, a period of exceptionally low inflation and the subsequent aggressive tightening cycle.

Reuters reported that de Cos is viewed by colleagues as a pragmatic economist who relies heavily on data and research and is willing to seek compromise. Before becoming governor, he served as the Bank of Spain's chief economist, an unusual transition from a research role into senior policymaking.

De Cos has also held prominent international roles, including chairing the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. His international profile increased further through his role at the BIS.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is another possible contender. The 60-year-old economist has led Germany's central bank since 2022 and has taken a less confrontational approach toward the ECB than his predecessor Jens Weidmann.

Nagel remains a moderate hawk but has generally sought to work within the ECB's policymaking framework. He has clearly articulated his policy positions while showing a willingness to compromise on other issues.

Nagel has also backed the creation of a European Deposit Insurance Scheme, despite long-standing German concerns over the potential financial burden on German taxpayers. He has strongly defended the ECB's independence and criticised political pressure on the central bank.

European Investment Bank President Nadia Calvino, 57, is another name that has surfaced in discussions, although she has not publicly expressed an interest in the ECB presidency.

Calvino, a former Spanish cabinet minister, is not a monetary economist but has extensive experience managing large institutions. Reuters reported that her management skills and experience could be relevant to leading the ECB and its 27-member Governing Council.

Gender could also become a factor in the succession discussions. There are currently only two women on the ECB's Governing Council, and both are due to leave within the next year.

The eventual choice will depend on negotiations among eurozone governments, with the balance between national representation, monetary-policy experience and broader European institutional considerations likely to shape the succession process.

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