Global Market: Gulf oil flows rebound to 81% of pre-war levels in September

Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September, helped by a sharp rebound in Saudi Arabian exports despite attacks on the kingdom's energy infrastructure and escalating Iranian attacks on regional shipping, Reuters reported.

Oil flows from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates averaged 19.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, according to Vortexa data cited by Reuters. That compared with an average of about 23.6 million bpd in the year before the Iran war began on February 28.

Kpler data cited by Reuters showed total September oil exports at 18.6 million bpd.


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Iranian exports fell to zero after a US blockade severely restricted the country's ability to ship oil. Other Gulf producers have adapted to attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping by using so-called dark transits, in which tankers switch off their tracking systems to avoid detection and help maintain oil flows, Reuters reported.

Crude exports recover faster than fuel shipments
The recovery has been stronger for crude and condensate than for refined products, Reuters reported, citing Vortexa data.

Crude and condensate flows recovered to 91% of pre-war levels at 16.3 million bpd. Refined fuel exports, including liquefied petroleum gas, remained at about 60% of their pre-war level of 7.3 million bpd.

The decline in fuel exports has worsened global shortages of diesel and jet fuel, contributing to record or near-record prices in several markets. The Middle East is a major supplier of refined fuels, making disruptions in the region particularly significant for global consumers.

Daily oil flows have also become considerably more volatile since the war began, according to Vortexa data cited by Reuters, raising questions over whether recent export levels can be sustained.

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Saudi Arabia drives Gulf export recovery
Saudi Arabia accounted for the bulk of the recovery in Gulf crude and condensate exports in September, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Saudi shipments increased by about 4.2 million bpd from August to 6.6 million bpd in September. The rebound came despite drone attacks that forced Saudi Arabia to shut its East-West Pipeline and temporarily halt crude loadings at the Yanbu oil port on the Red Sea.

Saudi Arabia's stronger exports more than offset declines elsewhere in the Gulf, accounting for the region's net export growth and more, Reuters reported.

Combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran rose to about 14.7 million bpd in September from 10.8 million bpd in August, according to Kpler data.

The increase came despite Iranian exports falling to zero, while exports from Kuwait and Qatar also declined. Higher Saudi shipments more than offset those losses, while exports from the UAE and Iraq also increased, Reuters reported.

The September recovery underscores the ability of major Gulf oil producers to restore shipments despite continuing security risks. However, the volatility in daily flows leaves uncertainty over whether the higher export levels can be maintained.

(Disclaimer: This article is based on inputs from agencies. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)