Brent crude oil price nears $100 as attacks on tankers threaten to worsen supply shock

Oil prices climbed to their highest level in nearly six weeks on Monday, moving closer to $100 a barrel as attacks on commercial vessels by the US and Iran increasingly threaten to disrupt crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.

Brent crude futures rose 89 cents, or 0.92%, to $97.17 a barrel by 1333 GMT after touching $97.93, their highest level since July 24. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 79 cents to $92.27.

The latest gains extend a sharp rally triggered by the escalation in attacks. Brent rose about 8% last week, while WTI gained nearly 10% as the US and Iran resumed strikes.


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The concern for oil markets is increasingly shifting from the conflict itself to the safety of the commercial shipping route that carries a significant share of global energy supplies. An average of just 10 commodity ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz each day over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May, according to analytics firm Kpler.

The slowdown comes after the US struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off the coast of Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil export hub. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had targeted three oil tankers using unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as three US-linked vessels elsewhere.

The attacks mark a significant change in the risk facing oil markets, according to maritime intelligence firm Marisks.

"Commercial tankers are now being deliberately used as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure, substantially weakening the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping," it said.

A Saudi-owned tanker was also attacked by Iran a week earlier, with Saudi Arabia saying two seafarers had died. Oman said on Monday that it had evacuated 16 crew members.

How much higher could oil prices go?

"If tanker traffic begins to slow materially, the market could price in a much larger supply shock. And there are already signs that this is happening," said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova.

The threat has raised the possibility of a much sharper price move. Goldman Sachs said oil could climb as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping intensify.

Iran is also preparing to announce a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said.

Gulf producers are meanwhile looking for ways to reduce their exposure to the disruption. The United Arab Emirates is building alternative routes for energy exports and trade so they are not "held hostage" by the war between the US and Iran, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said on Monday.

OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October at its meeting on Sunday, leaving the group to agree on new quotas before determining its next steps on production.

For oil markets, however, the immediate risk is increasingly tied to shipping. If attacks continue to deter tankers from using the Strait of Hormuz, the resulting squeeze on physical crude flows could turn the current price rally into a far larger supply shock.

(Disclaimer: This article is based on inputs from agencies. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)