Wall Street's mystery traders minted millions in 6 cases amid Iran-US war. Coincidence or insider trading?

While Iran-US war continues to rattle global markets, some traders strongly benefited by placing the right bets across Wall Street and oil futures, as well as betting platforms, just before key announcements - raising eyebrows over possible insider trading.

While Trump’s barrage of social media posts and announcements hangs like a dagger over stock markets, at least six instances can be point out since the beginning of the war where unknown, mystery traders made huge profits by trading Wall Street or oil futures minutes before any such decision was made public.

Here is a timeline of these mysterious but timely bets.

February 28: Strikes on Iran, beginning of war

US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, killing its former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and prompting massive retaliation from Tehran. This marked the beginning of a war that continues to spook investors.

According to data cited by BBC, six accounts were created on blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket in February. All these accounts placed bets that US will strike Iran by the end of the month. The attacks were soon confirmed by Trump on February 28, leading to these accounts earning $1.2 million.

A trader using the username “Magamyman” made waves on Polymarket by earning more than $553,000 after placing bets on the removal of Iran’s Supreme Leader just hours before he was killed during joint US-Israeli strikes.

March 9: Trump says Iran war is ‘very complete’

After more than a week of skyrocketing rally in oil prices and massive stock market crashes, US President Donald Trump said during a phone interview that the war against Iran was “very complete” and suggested it could be nearing an end, claiming Iranian military capabilities had been largely destroyed.

As a result of the announcement, oil prices plunged around 25%. However, investors pointed out that in less than an hour before the announcement, several bets were placed wagering that oil prices will fall, BBC reported, claiming that these traders made millions as a result of the crash in oil prices that came next.

March 23: Trump announces talks with Iran

Trump on March 23 said that the US and Iran had very good and productive conversations over the last two days regarding the “complete and total resolution” of the rising hostilities in the Middle East. He announced that the US is postponing all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. After the announcement, oil futures crashed up to 15% to fall below the key $100 per barrel mark, while Wall Street rallied.

Just five minutes before Trump’s announcement, S&P 500 futures worth $1.5 billion were bought, while oil futures worth $192 million were sold, according to trading platform Unusual Whales. Around 6,200 futures contracts linked to Brent and WTI crude were traded in a few seconds before Trump’s announcement, according to a report by the Financial Times. The notional value of these trades was estimated at $580 million, the report further said, adding that it remains unclear whether the trades were executed by a single or multiple participants.

Hence, S&P futures were bought at significantly lower levels minutes before they rallied sharply after Trump’s announcement, according to reports. Oil futures, meanwhile, were sold at sharply higher levels just before they tumbled.

April 7: US-Iran announce two-week ceasefire

Investors placed an approximately $950 million bet on oil prices falling just hours before the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, knocking crude futures down by nearly 15% to fall below $100 a barrel, Reuters reported. Investors sold a combined 8,600 lots of Brent and US crude futures, according to LSEG data cited by the news agency. This came as Trump stepped back from his threat to annihilate a “whole civilisation”.

April 17: Iran says it will open Strait of Hormuz

Investors placed bets worth about $760 million on a sharp fall in oil prices around 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced on April 17 said that the Strait of Hormuz was open, Reuters reported. “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through (the) Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire,” said Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Foreign Minister of Iran, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices.

April 22: Trump extends deadline for Iran war ceasefire

Some unknown traders placed bets worth $430 million on crude oil prices dropping, just 15 minutes before US President Donald Trump said he would extend his ceasefire deadline for the Iran war, Reuters reported. It cited LSEG data as saying that 4,260 lots of selling hit the oil market, worth a combined $430 million.

Democrat Congressman Steven Horsford yesterday demanded answers from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on potential market manipulation and insider trading within Donald Trump’s administration. He explained how certain mysterious trades were observed right before Trump’s major announcements over the past one year.

“18 minutes before last year's tariff pause announcement, traders placed enormous bets that the market would surge. And 47 minutes before the President's announcement on Iran negotiations, someone shorted the oil market by hundreds of millions of dollars,” said US Congressman Horsford. “That is not a coincidence. That is a pattern. And the only people with access to that information ahead of time are inside this Administration,” he said.

He demanded an investigation, claiming that while working families were left dealing with higher costs as a result of Trump’s decisions, some with access to insider information were cashing in.

Earlier last month, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman slammed the US administration, claiming that people close to President Donald Trump committed insider trading and are responsible for the $580 million mystery bets in oil futures made just before his post on talks between Iran and the US. According to him, this amounts to “treason”.

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