US Treasury bond yields ease from highs after data as Iran war escalation fans inflation concerns

U.S. Treasury yields retreated from earlier highs on Tuesday in the wake of economic data, after another rise in oil prices due to the resumption of strikes in the Iran war had reignited inflation concerns and helped trigger a global bond selloff.

Yields pared gains after the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing PMI fell to a still-elevated 54.6 last month from 55.6 in July, which was the highest reading since May 2022. Economists polled by Reuters had ‌projected it would dip ⁠to 55.2.

Separately, the ⁠Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, showed that job openings, a measure of labor demand, had risen by 89,000 to 7.271 million by the last day of July, below the estimate ​of 7.300 million in a Reuters poll, while data for June was revised lower to show 7.182 million unfilled positions instead of the previously reported 7.359 million.


The JOLTS report marks the ​first in a string of readings on the labor market this week, culminating with the release on Friday of the government's monthly payrolls report, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

GLOBAL BOND SELLOFF INTENSIFIES

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 1.2 basis points to 4.77% after climbing to 4.798%, its highest level ​since January 14, 2025 as yields in developed markets around the globe surged over inflation worries, the outlook ⁠for monetary tightening ‌and worsening fiscal conditions. The 10-year yield is on track for a fifth straight session of gains, its longest run since March.

Crude ​prices were up about 2% ​as the renewed fighting in the Middle East stoked supply concerns. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened additional strikes against Iran on ⁠Monday in the wake of the first volley of direct attacks in a month.

"It's not necessarily the ​level of yields that's concerning to markets on a day like this, it's the trend and the concern that ​if the trend persists, then it will start to bite more into how companies, how investors value companies, how investors discount those cash flows to put a price, a current price on whether that's shares, or real estate, or pick your asset," said Bill Merz, head of capital markets research and portfolio construction at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.

"And so there's a variety of factors at play, and I don't think we can safely chalk it up to any one catalyst, it's a combination of things playing out on a global scale right now."

Aside from inflation worries, Merz also cited competition from elevated levels of corporate debt offerings and concerns about the rise in ‌longer-term yields and its impact on economic growth.

FED RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS RISE

The yield on the 30-year bond shed 0.4 basis points to 5.246% after rising to 5.288%, its highest level since August 19.

Yields jumped on Friday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the central bank would "have ​work to do" if ​policymakers were not confident inflation would return to the ⁠U.S. central bank's 2% target, which led markets to increase expectations for a rate hike later this month.

A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 39.7 basis points.

Fed Governor Michael Barr said ​on Tuesday that if inflation does not cool quickly, it will be time for the U.S. central bank to increase rates.

Expectations for a hike of at least 25 basis points from the central bank at its September 15-16 meeting stand at 66.2%, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, up from 39.6% a week ago.

The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, rose 2.1 basis points to 4.371% after hitting 4.377%, its highest level since February 12, 2025.

The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.34% after closing at 2.33% on August 31.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.328%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.