US stocks: US Fed's Anna Paulson says Iran war increases risks to growth, inflation

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson said on Friday the Iran war is creating challenges for the U.S. economy, while stopping short of saying what that might mean for near-term changes in monetary policy.

"The conflict in the Middle East has ‌created new ⁠risks ⁠to both inflation and growth," Paulson said in the text of a speech to be delivered at an event held by the San Francisco Fed.

She noted that inflation has exceeded the U.S. central bank's 2% target for an extended period despite "significant progress" to lower price ​pressures. Paulson added that longer-run inflation expectations ⁠are "consistent" with ‌the that goal, but added "they may also be ​a ​little more fragile."


Paulson's comment on the current ⁠economic challenges was delivered in remarks that mulled how ​the rise of artificial intelligence technologies might affect ​the future of the economy and how the Fed might respond, noting the uncertainty of understanding in real time what is driving the current jump in productivity.

She explained that a jump in economic growth that could be driven by AI-driven ‌productivity gains would be tough for the central bank to respond to, given above-target inflation.

"If inflation ​were at the ​2% target, ⁠I would feel more comfortable being patient, keeping monetary policy on hold and waiting to see if a hypothetical growth surge puts ​upward pressure on inflation," Paulson said.

"But if inflation is above 2% and has been for some time, I would be more cautious," she said. "I would be inclined to weight the possibility of overheating more heavily in determining appropriate policy."