US Stocks: Macy's forecasts weak 2026, says tariff hit to ease later this year

Macy's said ​it was taking a "prudent approach" to its outlook, as it ​forecast a fall in annual revenue and profit, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks that could affect consumer spending.

Shares of the company were up about 6% in early trading after the department store said it expected ‌a comparatively smaller ⁠impact from ⁠tariffs in the second half of the year and beat quarterly profit estimates, helped by strong growth ​at its high-margin Bloomingdale's stores.

"Guidance assumes the first half of the year will have a larger tariff impact ​than the second half, with the first quarter having the most meaningful impact," the company said in a statement.


The outlook largely reflects rates before recent (tariff) changes, as prior tariffs are ​incorporated into existing inventory costs, CFO Tom Edwards said on ⁠a post ‌earnings call, signaling a margin hit in the first half of ​the year.

Washington ​has moved to a uniform 10% tariff following a Supreme Court ruling ⁠that struck down broader U.S. levies, but the company, which ​relies on manufacturing in China, heavily exposed to import duties.

Macy's expects ​an adjusted profit of $1.90 to $2.10 per share, compared with $2.15 last year and estimates of $2.17, while seeing a 20 to 30 basis point tariff hit to gross margin.

It also forecast annual net sales between $21.4 billion and $21.7 billion, down from $21.8 billion in 2025. Analysts were expecting $21.42 billion.

GREEN SHOOTS FROM TURNAROUND

Under CEO Tony Spring, Macy's has focused on higher-end labels, expanding ‌full-price sales, reinvesting in high-potential locations and closing underperforming stores, while improving product offerings and loyalty programs.

Macy's customers skew more toward the middle-and upper-income tiers, ​where performance ​remains stronger, Spring said on ⁠the call, but warned that macroeconomic and geopolitical factors could influence discretionary spending.

Sales at the Macy's brand fell 3.2% in the quarter, including store closures, though on a comparable basis, ​sales rose 0.4%, compared with a 1.1% decline a year earlier.

Excluding items, Macy's earned $1.67 per share, beating estimates of $1.53, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Other retailers, including Walmart and Kohl's , have also issued cautious guidance.

Analysts at Telsey Advisory Group warned that macro pressure, weak traffic, tariff uncertainty and a competitive, highly promotional retail environment could weigh on near-term results.