Treasuries rise as falling oil eases pressure on Fed

Treasuries rose on Tuesday as signs of progress toward a diplomatic resolution of the Iran war sent oil prices lower, curbing expectations for more than one Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in the coming year.

Yields fell across maturities by four to six basis points, with the yield on the two-year note reaching the lowest level since July 20 and the benchmark 10-year yield at 4.62%. Treasury yields have tracked oil prices to varying degrees since the US attacked Iran in late February, helping push up inflation and bolstering the case for tighter US monetary policy. On Tuesday, West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell nearly 6% to their lowest since July 13, following comments by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and representatives of Qatar suggesting the US and Iran were close to an agreement.

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"In an environment where Fed credibility is at stake and some Fed officials are losing patience with the fact that inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for five years, we think that Treasuries will continue to be driven by movements in oil prices," said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.