Nvidia to announce Q1 earnings tonight. What to expect and why there could be a $350 billion price swing

All eyes will be on Nvidia later on Wednesday as the AI chip giant and the world’s most valuable company gears up to report its April quarter earnings, a release that could once again shape sentiment across global technology markets.

Nvidia is expected to post another strong quarter. According to LSEG data, revenue for the April quarter is projected to jump 79%, marking the company’s fastest pace of growth in more than a year. Adjusted profit is likely to rise 81.8% to $42.97 billion.

The expected growth would be fuelled by relentless AI spending from customers such as Microsoft and Meta, with Big Tech firms expected to spend more than $700 billion on artificial intelligence this year, up sharply from nearly $400 billion in 2025.


Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has said the company has secured enough supply to meet demand for several quarters, helping ease concerns around capacity constraints. Yet, fresh risks are beginning to emerge.

One key concern is the possibility of a slower-than-expected buildout of data centres, which could weigh on near-term demand for AI chips. China also remains a major wildcard. Nvidia is yet to sell its H200 chips in the country as Beijing continues to push domestic alternatives, although Huang’s recent visit alongside U.S. President Donald Trump has sparked hopes of progress.

Massive price swings on the cards?

Options traders are bracing for a massive swing in Nvidia’s market value after the earnings release. Current options positioning implies a move of about 6.5% in either direction when trading resumes on Thursday. That translates into a potential $355 billion swing in market capitalisation, larger than the standalone market value of nearly 90% of companies in the S&P 500, Reuters said in a report.

The positioning reflects a market that remains deeply bullish on Nvidia while simultaneously becoming more cautious after the sharp rally in semiconductor stocks. Increasing hedging activity and profit-taking across chip stocks and semiconductor-linked ETFs suggest investors are keen to protect gains even as optimism around AI remains intact, the report added.

While options markets indicate investors are still willing to chase further upside in Nvidia, many are also beginning to hedge positions and lock in gains across other high-flying names in the sector.

Things to worry about?

Despite its commanding lead in AI chips used to train artificial intelligence systems, Nvidia is increasingly facing competition as the AI market evolves. Demand is gradually shifting toward processors designed to run AI systems, handle real-time queries and execute tasks instantly, opening the door for rivals to challenge its dominance.
Traditional competitors such as Intel and AMD are pushing chips aimed at smaller, cost-sensitive workloads that are becoming more common across the industry. At the same time, Alphabet has emerged as a serious challenger through its custom tensor processing units, securing deals worth tens of billions of dollars. Amazon is also steadily expanding its chip business through its Trainium processors.

Nvidia shares are up around 19% so far this year, underperforming the sharp gains seen in peers such as AMD, Intel and Arm, as well as Alphabet’s 27% rise. In comparison, the S&P 500 has gained 8%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged 57% during the same period.

Investors will closely track whether Nvidia’s results can justify the recent surge in valuations and volatility across AI and semiconductor stocks. The focus will firmly remain on data centre demand, hyperscaler spending, margins and forward guidance, all of which are crucial for sustaining the AI-driven rally.

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