Industrial stocks lose momentum as Iran war, AI reversal take toll

A sudden reversal in momentum for previously high-flying shares of industrial companies over the past three weeks has some investors bracing for more pain ahead.

The S&P 500 Industrials Index has tumbled 6.1% since reaching its last record on Aug. 14 as the Iran war once again pushed up oil prices and the artificial intelligence trade went into reverse.

Technical alarm bells have started to ring. The selloff has dragged the index below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, measures of its short-term and medium-term price trends.


"It is likely that breaking below these moving averages steepens the decline in the short term," said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. The index is now likely to test its 200-day average, a "key level of support" that is about 2.5% below where it's trading now, Mulberry said.

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Mulberry blames the selloff on a breakdown in the momentum trade that had powered the sector to its recent highs, while others on Wall Street point a finger at economic forces.

Oil prices have resumed their march higher as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, keeping inflation expectations and long-term bond yields elevated. That's a toxic cocktail that threatens to increase production prices and the costs that capital-intensive manufacturers pay to borrow money, while dealing a blow to the broader economy that drives their sales.

And these headwinds are swirling as the industrials group trades at some 23.7 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months, a premium to the broader S&P 500 Index's multiple of 19.4.

"It's a recipe for a pullback," said Brian Sponheimer, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. "If you're a trader, it makes the path of least resistance pressing the sell button."

Still, there are signs that so many investors have already hit the sell button that the worst of the declines could be over.