Global Markets | Australian shares edge lower as miners fall, RBA hike looms

Australian shares ended slightly lower on Friday as losses in miners outweighed gains in financials, while the Middle East conflict stoked inflation concerns and lifted expectations of a central bank rate hike next week.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index ‌closed 0.1% ⁠lower at 8,617.10 ⁠points. It dropped 6.3% so far in March, set for its worst month since ​September 2022.

Markets are in a consolidation phase as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran continues, though ​the long-term outlook for energy, inflation and global growth remains unclear, said Kai Chen, a director at MPC Markets.


Inflation concerns reversed bets for a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia at ⁠its policy ‌board meeting on March 17.

All "Big Four" banks expect a ​rate hike ​by RBA to 4.1% on Tuesday and further to 4.35% ⁠in May. Markets imply nearly an 80% chance of hike ​next week and are fully priced for 4.35% ​by August.

"Higher rates can support bank earnings through wider net interest margins, but only if households keep borrowing and arrears remain contained," said Marc Jocum, senior product and investment strategist at Global X ETFs.

Financials gained 1% in the session but ended the week down 0.4%. All four major banks ‌rose between 0.5% and 1.5%. Virgin Australia and Qantas Airways have both fallen a little over 13% in March so far ​as jet ​fuel prices surged after the ⁠conflict began.

Miners declined 2.1% in the session, taking weekly losses to 4.4%. Gold producer Northern Star Resources slumped 18.8% after warning it may struggle to ​meet the lower end of its fiscal 2026 production guidance.

Technology, gold and healthcare stocks fell between 4.6% and 9.7% during the week.

Across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.1% to 13,187.34 points and dropped 2.5% for the week, its steepest fall since September 2022.