Global Market Today: Asian stocks to fall as oil stokes inflation fears

Asian stocks were poised to decline Thursday, tracking losses on Wall Street as surging oil prices and Treasury yields stoked inflation concerns ahead of key US price data. US oil extended its rally to an eighth straight session.

Equity-index futures for Japan, South Korea and Australia pointed lower after the S&P 500 Index fell 0.5%, led by industrial and consumer-discretionary shares. The Nasdaq 100 Index dropped 0.3% as Nvidia Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. declined. Contracts for US stocks were little changed in early Asian trading.

Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year reaching the highest since 2023, after the government said it would purchase up to $6 billion of longer-dated debt, disappointing some investors who had expected a larger increase. US oil rose above $97 a barrel early Thursday after Brent settled above $101 as escalating Middle East tensions raised concerns about energy supplies, adding to expectations the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to contain inflation.


The combination of higher oil prices and rising bond yields leaves markets particularly sensitive to Friday’s US inflation report, which may determine whether the Fed raises rates this month. A stronger-than-expected reading may reinforce bets on further tightening and put additional pressure on stocks and bonds, while softer data could revive expectations that policymakers will remain on hold.

“The longer elevated prices persist, the harder it becomes for markets to shrug the inflation impulse,” said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, a multi-asset strategist at Mizuho International Plc.

President Donald Trump downplayed concerns about oil prices and a war he said will end after the midterm election, though hostilities show little sign of easing. Iran will escalate its counterstrikes if the US continues attacking its territory and infrastructure, according to a senior official from the Islamic Republic.

“The temperature just got turned up again,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth. “The risk premium is alive and well, and the risk to energy supplies coming out of the Gulf is real.”

The dollar ended the day at its weakest level in about seven months. The yen was steady after advancing in the previous session, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent challenged traders to test his resolve on supporting Japan’s currency.

With Fed officials concerned about persistently high inflation but divided over how monetary policy should respond, fresh evidence of price pressures could tip the Federal Open Market Committee toward a hike. Cooler readings would strengthen the case for keeping rates unchanged after five consecutive meetings on hold this year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release August producer-price data on Thursday, followed by the consumer price index on Friday.

Swaps imply about a 62% chance the Fed raises rates by a quarter point on Sept. 16, up from 60% on Tuesday. At least two hikes by the middle of next year are fully priced in.

“A hot CPI print would all but seal a September hike and underpin a firmer dollar,” said Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “A cooler reading would strengthen the case for a hold and leave the dollar vulnerable to a dovish Fed repricing.”