Global Market | From Pandemic Crash to War Spike: A history of crude’s biggest surges

Global oil markets have once again entered a phase of extreme volatility after prices surged above the $100-per-barrel mark following a US military strike on Iran, a major crude producer. The latest escalation in tensions in West Asia has sent shockwaves through energy markets, pushing crude to multi-year highs and reviving memories of earlier dramatic swings in oil prices over the past two decades.

On Monday, global benchmark Brent crude traded around $115–$117 per barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to roughly $116 per barrel, its highest level since 2022, as fears of supply disruptions intensified amid the widening conflict involving Iran.

According to AFP, the latest surge adds to a long history of sharp price movements in the oil market this century, where geopolitical conflicts, economic crises and supply shocks have repeatedly driven dramatic changes in crude prices.


Russia-Ukraine war pushed oil above $100 in 2022
The last time oil traded above $100 per barrel before the current spike was in early 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia is one of the world’s largest producers of oil and gas, and the conflict triggered immediate concerns over global supply, AFP reported.

As Western countries imposed sanctions on Russian energy exports, crude prices surged. In March 2022, Brent climbed to about $139 per barrel while WTI reached roughly $130, levels close to the historic highs seen more than a decade earlier.

Prices remained largely above $100 through much of the first half of that year as post-pandemic demand recovered and markets struggled to replace Russian supplies. Eventually, higher production and easing supply concerns pushed crude prices lower later in 2022.

Pandemic crash sent oil prices below zero in 2020
Just two years before that rally, oil markets witnessed one of the most extraordinary moments in commodity trading history.

During the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, global lockdowns sharply reduced demand for fuel as travel collapsed and factories shut down. Storage facilities rapidly filled up while a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia added to the oversupply.

In April 2020, WTI futures plunged to minus $40.32 per barrel, meaning producers were effectively paying buyers to take oil off their hands. At the same time, Brent crude fell to a record low of around $15.98 per barrel.

Iran sanctions drove prices higher in 2012
Oil markets also experienced significant volatility in 2012 when Western powers imposed sweeping sanctions on Iran, targeting its crude exports in an attempt to curb its nuclear programme, AFP reported.

The restrictions tightened global supply and pushed crude prices back above $100 per barrel after they had previously slipped below $90 amid concerns over the eurozone debt crisis.

At the same time, broader tensions across the Middle East, including the conflict in Syria, kept prices elevated for several years. Oil remained mostly above $100 until 2014 before plunging below $50 in early 2015 as a surge in US shale production flooded the market.

Arab Spring triggered a price spike in 2011
According to AFP, political upheaval across the Middle East and North Africa during the Arab Spring also rattled energy markets.

In March 2011, Brent crude surged to about $127 per barrel as protests and uprisings spread across the region. Long-standing leaders were overthrown in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, while Libya, a major oil producer, was engulfed in conflict that disrupted supplies.

The unrest heightened fears of supply interruptions across key oil-producing countries, pushing prices sharply higher.

Record highs during the 2008 commodity boom
The most dramatic surge in oil prices came during the global commodity boom of 2008, AFP said.

On July 11 that year, Brent crude reached an all-time high of $147.50 per barrel while WTI touched $147.27. The rally was driven by strong demand from rapidly growing economies such as China, declining US stockpiles, geopolitical tensions in major producers including Iran and Nigeria, and a weakening US dollar that made crude cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

However, the global financial crisis later that year triggered a severe economic slowdown and demand collapse. By December 2008, Brent crude had fallen to around $36 per barrel.

A market shaped by shocks
According to AFP, the history of oil markets in the 21st century illustrates how sensitive crude prices are to geopolitical tensions, economic disruptions and supply imbalances.

The latest rally above $100 once again highlights how quickly energy markets can react to global conflicts, with traders closely watching whether the ongoing crisis in the Middle East will lead to prolonged supply disruptions or another sharp reversal in prices.