FIFA World Cup drives prediction market to record high; sports volumes may hit $740 billion by 2030, says Binance Research

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has emerged as the biggest event in prediction market history, with tournament-related trading volume crossing $5.4 billion by late June, according to a report by Binance Research. The event has overtaken the 2024 U.S. election cycle, which had previously brought significant attention to the sector.

The surge has also pushed monthly sports prediction market volumes beyond $20 billion, marking nearly 200-fold growth over the past two years. Based on current adoption trends, Binance Research estimates annual sports prediction market volumes could rise from about $248 billion in 2026 to between $554 billion and $923 billion by 2030. Its base case estimate stands at $739 billion.

What’s powering this?


The report attributes part of the growth to the World Cup's expanded 48-team format, which increased the number of matches by 60%.

Moreover, unlike traditional sports betting, where wagers are generally held until settlement, each World Cup match in a prediction market becomes a continuously tradable contract. This allows participants to enter and exit positions throughout the tournament, increasing both the number of available markets and trading activity.

Binance Research said the lower-cost structure of prediction markets is another factor supporting adoption. Traditional sportsbooks typically operate as principals and earn revenue through margins embedded in betting odds, resulting in an effective hold rate of around 10%. Prediction markets, by contrast, function as exchanges that match buyers and sellers while charging fees closer to 1%.

According to the report, the difference becomes more pronounced over repeated trading cycles. A $1,000 bankroll exposed to a 10% bookmaker hold is largely depleted over time, while the same capital retains substantially more value when subject to a 1% exchange fee.


If current migration trends continue, Binance Research estimates that the lower-cost structure could leave more than $200 billion in additional value with participants by 2030.

The report added that lower fees and improved accessibility are encouraging both existing users and new participants. It noted that many prediction markets operate on-chain, enabling them to reach users globally, including in emerging markets where access to traditional betting infrastructure may be more limited.

While sports continues to drive growth, Binance Research said politics and crypto have already shown meaningful traction, with macroeconomic markets emerging as a potential next growth area. The report added that as competition increases and prediction markets expand into new categories, the regulatory environment will remain a key factor shaping long-term growth.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, jointly hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico, comprises 48 teams which represent 27% of the world’s population and 62% of global GDP, underlining the tournament’s huge economic footprint. Attendance is projected to be 6.5 million, nearly double the 3.6 million record set at the 1994 US-hosted World Cup.

According to a report by Bank of America, it could become the world’s first fully AI-driven and data-intensive mega sporting event, where artificial intelligence, real-time analytics and digital infrastructure fundamentally reshape how the beautiful game is played, managed and consumed.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to mark a major shift in how global sporting events are played, managed and experienced. From AI-driven match analysis and digital twins to real-time data processing and edge computing, the tournament is set to become a large-scale showcase of how artificial intelligence and data infrastructure are increasingly shaping modern sport.

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