ETMarkets NRI Talk | AI’s 30x sales premium: Apurva Sheth on OpenAI, Anthropic and the valuation debate

Artificial intelligence is being hailed as one of the biggest investment themes of our generation—but are investors paying too much for the promise of what AI could become?

OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly commanding valuations that translate into roughly 30-38 times price-to-sales, compared with around 3.7 times for the average S&P 500 company.

That massive premium raises a critical question: are markets pricing in extraordinary growth years ahead, or is AI entering a phase where expectations could run ahead of fundamentals?


In this segment of ETMarkets NRI Talk, we speak with Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspective at SAMCO Securities, about the valuation debate surrounding OpenAI and Anthropic, the significance of their IPO plans, and what investors can learn from the dot-com era.

He also shares his perspective on whether today's AI infrastructure players will ultimately emerge as the biggest winners—or whether the real value could accrue to companies that use AI to build lasting competitive advantages.

We also discuss the lessons from highly anticipated IPOs such as SpaceX and what Indian investors should know about accessing US stocks and pre-IPO opportunities. Edited Excerpts –

Q) Anthropic has reportedly pushed back its IPO plans. Should investors see this as a red flag, or is postponing an IPO simply part of the normal listing process?

A) The Anthropic IPO which was scheduled for October is now pushed back to November. I wouldn’t see this as a red flag. Such delays are normal during the listing process of a company.

However, OpenAI which was earlier considering to list before Anthropic has now delayed its IPO plans to 2027. The reason cited is that an IPO in September will be ‘ill-timed’ as there are lot of safety concerns which if left unresolved can even cause ‘Human extinction’.

Now this might be true, I don’t know that, but one major reason was also that OpenAI wasn’t getting the valuation it demanded and safety concerns are just a face saver for them.

Read more: ETMarkets PMS Talk | The biggest de-rating warning? When market expectations outrun business reality: Swati Khemani

Q) Are investors currently valuing AI companies on today's earnings, or on what they believe these companies could become five or ten years from now?

A) AI companies are startups with no or limited profitability compared to their revenue and valuations. The market is definitely pricing a lot of future growth right now. Startups are normally valued on a price to sales basis.

Both OpenAI and Anthropic are trading in the zone of 30-38x price to sales depending on the valuation you choose. The average S&P 500 company trades at a P/S ratio of roughly 3.7x.

Highly profitable tech giants like Microsoft hover around 11x, and Alphabet trades at 9.5x. The 30x+ multiples commanded by both AI firms reflect an unprecedented growth premium being priced in right now.

Image 1

Q) We've seen investors aggressively chase some of the biggest AI names. How do you distinguish genuine long-term AI winners from companies benefiting mainly from the AI narrative?

A) AI is a foundational technology. Capital initially flows in these enablers because they are the only tangible way to play the trend. However, competition erodes the creators' margins over time, while the enterprises adopting the technology build permanent, compounding advantages. Take the Dot com era as example.

Cisco, Sun Microsystems, JDS Uniphase built the routers, servers, and fiber-optic cables for the internet. During the dot com crash these stocks fell drastically and didn’t recover for years.

However, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Booking.com, Meta used the cheap internet infrastructure to transform the way people accessed information, commerce, entertainment, travel, and communication.

Nvidia, OpenAI, Anthropic, and the cloud providers are selling GPU compute, chips, and foundational LLM API access. They are spending heavily on building capacities, however, eventually someone else will benefit more from their investment.

Read more: ETMarkets Smart Talk | Fed tightening returns: Ritesh Nambiar on what it means for Indian bonds and the rupee

Q) We have seen the listing of SpaceX. What does the sharp move after listing, and the subsequent correction, tell us about buying into highly anticipated IPOs?

A) Large IPO’s generally don’t make money for the investors who get in during the IPO or on listing day simply because of excess supply. Large IPOs suck up most of the demand during the allotment phase itself.

So almost everyone who is interested in the stock gets allotment which leaves little demand after listing. In cases, where companies come at a high valuation, the stocks take a long time to recover above the issue price.

There are ample examples both in India and abroad like Paytm, LIC, Reliance Power, Meta, Uber Technologies, Alibaba, AT&T. SpaceX isn’t any different than any of the others. Markets will reward only once the company proves it can grow sustainably.

Q) Let's start from the basics: Can an Indian resident invest in a US IPO such as Anthropic?

A) No. Indian residents can’t invest in US IPOs. Unlike India the IPO process isn’t where the public participates in the book building offer.

The merchant banker and the IPO bound company decide who they want to allocate the share to. So its almost impossible for an Indian retail investor to invest in IPO bound companies in US.

Q) How does pre-IPO investing work for an Indian retail investor? Who can access these opportunities, and what are the minimum investment requirements?

A) US companies rarely allow small retail names onto their official private share registries (cap tables). Global fintech platforms create a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). This is a micro-fund set up solely to buy a block of shares in a single company (e.g., "Anthropic Series Pro SPV").

When you invest, you are buying a "unit" or fractional share of that specific SPV. The actual physical or digital shares are held securely by a licensed US custodian or trust company, matching your fractional ownership layout.

Because of the complexity involved, this route is open only for Ultra HNI’s with high level contacts in the US.

Q) What paperwork does an Indian investor need before buying US stocks, PAN, KYC, Form W-8BEN, overseas brokerage account, or anything else?

A) Clients need to open an account with a broker like SAMCO Securities who offers a platform to buy stocks in US. The documentation is almost the same which is needed to open an Indian demat account.

PAN, Aadhar, Income and Bank Proof etc. is the same in US account too. W-8BEN is part of on boarding form, no need to separately upload anything.

Existing SAMCO account holders just need to complete their ReKYC process and their account is opened within a couple of days.

Q) Is the taxation different if I invest in a US IPO, buy the stock after listing, or invest through a US-focused mutual fund or ETF?

A) Yes, LTCG exemption of ₹1.25Lakh is not available for US stocks gain and the holding period to qualify as LTCG is 24 months against 12 months in Indian stocks. STCG on US stocks is as per slabs and in Indian stocks it's flat 20%.

US focused or International mutual funds also have to be held for 24 months to qualify for LTCG.

There are only 6 global indices traded on the Indian stock exchanges. However, most of them are trading at an exorbitant premium after the recent changes in their calculation of closing prices and circuit filters.

Before 7 September 2026, the prices were anchored to their indicative net asset value (I-NAV). Now they can move +/- 20% of previous days closing prices. This has pushed prices way above to their I-NAV.

Hence, one shouldn’t buy these ETF’s instead they could opt to open an account with an Indian broker like SAMCO Securities and buy stocks directly.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times.)