Dow Jones| Nasdaq | S&P 500 | US Stock Market Today |Highlights: S&P 500, Nasdaq end lower as Warsh's inflation stance lifts rate-hike bets
Dow Jones| Nasdaq | S&P 500 | US Stock Market Today |Highlights: US stocks ended lower on Friday as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank's focus on bringing inflation back to 2%, lifting expectations for a September rate hike. The S&P 500 fell 0.26% and Nasdaq dropped 0.53%, while PayPal slid and Gap surged after company updates.

Dow Jones| Nasdaq | S&P 500 | US Stock Market Today |Highlights: S&P 500, Nasdaq end lower as Warsh's inflation stance lifts rate-hike bets
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Markets took it a bit hawkishly. We saw the market price in more hikes. The long end reacted in a way that the Fed might be a little bit more serious about hiking, so therefore inflation credibility may be less at risk. The one hawkish thing to note is that he did mention that the labor market is stable and output is strong, and then obviously they're concerned around inflation, so I think that's what led markets to view this as somewhat hawkish. It puts the emphasis on the data that's coming up now, so if we get a stable or stronger labor market signal next week and then we get a stronger inflation print the following, then that's going to give a signal that maybe Warsh is ready to go as well.
- Molly Brooks, US rates strategist, TD Securities, New York
The initial conclusion is that Chairman Warsh is giving the market what it wants to a certain extent. He's acknowledging that inflation is an ongoing issue but sticking to his guns of not being overly forward about predicting what the Fed may or may not do in the future. That's as good as you could have hoped coming out of him. The market is reflecting that.
- Oliver Pursche, senior vice president, Wealthspire Advisors, Westport, Connecticut
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At least for the time being, we're getting more of the same Warsh-speak that we saw prior to any of the Fed decisions that he had been a part of. Meaning he's saying a lot, but none of this seems really substantive. The initial reaction seems hawkish, but it looks like we're just repeating or seem to be getting in the same route as we did leading up to the last Fed decision where the market was all hawked up heading into it. And in the end, there was nothing to be hawkish about and the dollar sold off. So we'll see where this goes into the next meeting next month. But I feel like I'm watching him give the same speech for the fourth time now, maybe even fifth. Because frankly, he's talking about, yes, they're going to be focused on inflation. He's not giving forward guidance, but inflation is not going in the direction that they want it to go. But he's saying all the same hawkish talking points that he said leading up to the last decision. And then the last decision he's basically like, well, the market's doing all the work for us, so we're good. So, it's kind of like a fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, can't get fooled again, if you know that. Yeah, that's where it seems like we're going.
- Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in Stamford, Connecticut
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During the speech we saw the short end of the yield curve rise while the long end moved down. This came alongside Warsh’s focus on the inflation data staying elevated, which he spoke to at length. This should quell some of the bond market anxiety as he gave a clear picture of the Fed’s stance on inflation and the need to push it down to target at sufficient speed -- his own words. I found his communication to be very clear in what his Fed would and would not do. He clearly is sticking to his guns with respect to forward guidance and the risks that presents to markets. He wants the markets to assess the data and come to their own conclusions, just like the Fed is doing behind closed doors. The one thing lacking from this speech was a credible plan to actually fight inflation. Perhaps that means he will push harder on running down the Fed’s balance sheet, but there are a lot of question marks here. He did specifically call out one of his primary methods of evaluating inflation, the disaggregation of all the specific goods/services in the PCE basket to see the inflation rates of the underlying areas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more research on this area going forward. Investors will likely see the Fed moving in a more hawkish direction. Warsh directly spoke to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, noting that labor markets were robust while inflation measures have stayed consistently well above target. The base case for their forward decisions appears to be moving slightly more toward hawkish, especially given the continued strength coming from corporate capex and equity earnings.
- Cyrus Amini, chief investment officer, Hyphen Wealth Management, Mount Pleasant, South Carolina
Warsh acknowledged the reality of an economy at full employment and inflation above target, as it has been for five years. Nominal interest rates are below nominal GDP growth, which is the definition of a stimulative monetary policy, which is not an appropriate stance for an economy at full employment and inflation above target. The market raised the likelihood of an increase in the Fed funds rate at the September FOMC meeting and is now pricing in another hike by year-end. The short-end of the curve has sold off while the long-end has rallied in response to a Fed chair that sees inflation as the primary problem. Both Warsh and the market have gotten their assessments correct. CHRIS GUNSTER, HEAD OF FIXED INCOME, FIDELIS CAPITAL, GREENWICH, CONNECTICUT: It’s pretty clear that the market now expects a higher probability of a Fed rate hike in September. Before the meeting, it was less than 50% probability. After the meeting, it is now over 50% probability. That is in line with the comments that he made around inflation being above target, employment being strong, and his quote about the economy being surprisingly resilient. That gives him the leeway to increase rates in the near term. Warsh was more hawkish than expected from the marketplace. Looking at the market reaction, it says exactly that. We have lower inflation expectations on the longer term and higher inflation expectations in the really short end. That is consistent with what we’re seeing in the Treasury market with a flattening of the yield curve. Long-end Treasury rates have moved down. Front-end Treasury rates are higher. That is consistent with a Fed hiking.
- Michael Rosen, managing partner and CIO, Angeles Investments, Santa Monica, California
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What Warsh said isn't surprising given the circumstances. It came after a press conference that was criticized in retrospect. He had to come out and say something about the policy outlook, reiterating the Fed's intent to control inflation, re-enforcing the Fed's inflation-fighting credentials. The market reaction was as expected. The yield on the two-year, a very policy-sensitive portion of the curve and the shorter intermediates, did move up as they anticipated a rate increase if not in September, then in all likelihood by the early part of December. He threw a lot of dots out there and when you connect them, in effect, that's what he was saying. Unless inflation rolls over and we don't expect it to. If anything, the pressure may build a bit over the next 6 to 8 months. He didn't come right out and say it, but all the ingredients seem to be there at this point for at least one rate increase, if not more going forward.
- Gary Schlossberg, global strategist, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, San Francisco
The market was underpricing the odds of a Fed hike before, and I think now they're appropriately priced in. This was a marked improvement from the July press conference. What Warsh explicitly says is that inflation is too high, recent progress has been modest, labor markets are consistent with full-employment and broad financial conditions do not appear restrictive. Short-term interest rates remain the predominant policy tool, and the Fed must be ready to act if inflation does not improve.
- Christopher Hodge, chief US economist, Natixis, New York
Warsh accomplished what he was trying to do, which is get his point of view across without really disrupting the markets. Why the market is very modestly reacting is he is very adamant that the 2% inflation target is going to remain. There's been somewhat misguided thoughts among investors that this would soften a little bit. Clearly, that's not the case. He is reiterating the hawkishness, but in a more of a consistent way than an incremental way. He's telling the market, do not expect cuts in any time until we have this thing completely under control and do prepare yourself for hikes.
- Mark Hackett, chief market strategist, Nationwide, Philadelphia
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Zinc fell from a four-year high on Friday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on inflation prompted traders to increase bets on a September rate hike. However, tight inventories continued to support prices, with LME zinc stocks falling to around two days of global consumption. Zinc remained on track for a 6.4% monthly gain in August.
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U.S. stocks rose on Friday, while the U.S. dollar index rose 0.4% to 99.55, again reflecting expectations that rates will rise. The rates market was showing a 46% chance of a rate increase next month, up from 35% on Thursday, according to CME data.

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