Citigroup pushes back Fed rate cut timeline after strong job numbers

Citigroup has pushed back its Fed rate-cut timeline, citing unexpectedly strong U.S. job gains and persistent inflation risks.

The Wall Street brokerage now expects a total of ‌75 ⁠basis points ⁠of rate cuts in September, October and December instead of June, July and September, according to a note dated April 3.

"We continue to think signs of a weakening ⁠labor market ‌will result in cuts later in the year. But the ⁠timing of upcoming data suggests a later start to rate cuts than we had previously been expecting," Citigroup said.


U.S. job growth rebounded more than expected in March as a strike by healthcare workers ‌ended and temperatures warmed up, but downside risks for the labor market are ⁠mounting from a war with Iran that has no clear end in sight.

Citigroup says weak hiring will push the unemployment rate higher in the summer, similar to the last few years.