Reduce Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, target Rs 450: IIFL
Reduce Sun Pharmaceutical Industries at a price target of Rs 450.
By ETMarkets.com |
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IIFL has a reduce call on Sun Pharmaceutical Industries with a target price of Rs 450.
The current market price of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is Rs 465.80. Time period given by the brokerage is one year.
View by the brokerage
Ilumya Rx ramp-up has been slow: Sun launched its IL-23 psoriasis product, Ilumya, in the US market around 5-6 months ago. However, total prescription (TRx) ramp-up for the product has been very slow since launch, with Ilumya garnering only 180 TRxs for Feb-19. Ilumya’s TRx count is significantly below that of market leaders in the psoriasis segment, with JNJ’s Stelara and Novartis’ Cosentyx averaging monthly TRxs of nearly 24K and nearly 48K respectively.
Initial launch trajectory for Ilumya significantly below Tremfya’s: The two most-recent product launches in the psoriasis market, just before Sun’s Ilumya, were JNJ’s Tremfya (IL-23) and Valeant’s Siliq (IL-17), both of which were launched in Jul-17. We compared the initial launch trajectory of Ilumya and Tremfya, given that both products have the same MOA (IL-23). In the 27th week of launch, Tremfya’s TRxs were nearly 24x that of Ilumya’s current weekly TRxs. This indicates that Ilumya is not only underperforming market leaders but also one of the recently launched similar products.
Ilumya’s monthly TRxs will have to increase 6-7x to reach our FY20ii sales estimate of US$50m: Valeant’s Siliq, with monthly TRxs of nearly 900, is generating a quarterly revenue of only US$6m. Based on the weighted average price of Cosentyx, Taltz and Tremfya, Ilumya’s monthly TRxs will need to increase, from the current nearly 180 to nearly 1,200, for the product to reach our FY20 sales estimate of US$50m. While this is not impossible, it would require significant detailing efforts by Sun’s commercial team as well as investment in DTC spends.
The current market price of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is Rs 465.80. Time period given by the brokerage is one year.
View by the brokerage
Ilumya Rx ramp-up has been slow: Sun launched its IL-23 psoriasis product, Ilumya, in the US market around 5-6 months ago. However, total prescription (TRx) ramp-up for the product has been very slow since launch, with Ilumya garnering only 180 TRxs for Feb-19. Ilumya’s TRx count is significantly below that of market leaders in the psoriasis segment, with JNJ’s Stelara and Novartis’ Cosentyx averaging monthly TRxs of nearly 24K and nearly 48K respectively.
Initial launch trajectory for Ilumya significantly below Tremfya’s: The two most-recent product launches in the psoriasis market, just before Sun’s Ilumya, were JNJ’s Tremfya (IL-23) and Valeant’s Siliq (IL-17), both of which were launched in Jul-17. We compared the initial launch trajectory of Ilumya and Tremfya, given that both products have the same MOA (IL-23). In the 27th week of launch, Tremfya’s TRxs were nearly 24x that of Ilumya’s current weekly TRxs. This indicates that Ilumya is not only underperforming market leaders but also one of the recently launched similar products.
Ilumya’s monthly TRxs will have to increase 6-7x to reach our FY20ii sales estimate of US$50m: Valeant’s Siliq, with monthly TRxs of nearly 900, is generating a quarterly revenue of only US$6m. Based on the weighted average price of Cosentyx, Taltz and Tremfya, Ilumya’s monthly TRxs will need to increase, from the current nearly 180 to nearly 1,200, for the product to reach our FY20 sales estimate of US$50m. While this is not impossible, it would require significant detailing efforts by Sun’s commercial team as well as investment in DTC spends.
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