Oil will not be a matter of concern for long in India: Mehraboon Irani, Nirmal Bang Securities

In a chat with ET Now, Mehraboon Irani, Principal & Head-Private Client Group Business of Nirmal Bang Securities, shares his views on the market. Excerpts:

ET Now: On the one hand rupee is slipping back to 61, but the fall in crude oil prices are also coinciding - something which we have not really seen for a long time. What do you think?

Mehraboon Irani: Not many had anticipated that Brent crude will come below 100. In fact, geopolitical concerns has been at its peak in the last 20 years. I also believe that oil will at least be 110-120, but it is a pleasant surprise.

Coming to your question, the US dollar is at its peak right now. Also, US growth is expected to go above 3 per cent in 2015. US dollar could strengthen further from hereon and that could be one reason why there could be a minor mishap for emerging markets including India in the months to come.

The correlation ends over here. I do not seen Brent crude shooting up beyond the level which we had seen, for other reasons and not necessarily the way the currency is moving. This is mainly because of the fact that the dependence on Brent crude or even the NYMEX is not as high as what it used to be. People are moving on to shale gas and there is other rationale also behind this.

Thus, I do not think oil is going to be a matter of concern for long. India has been lucky because that is going to possibly tilt the balance in our favour as far as our fiscal deficit goes.