Low probability of double dip recession: Rajeev Malik
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| ET Now spoke to Rajeev Malik, Head, India and ASEAN Economics, Macquarie Securities Group, to get his views on double dip recession
Well, let's move on to the economic data that we have been seeing very, very strong, especially out of the US now that we are seeing the manufacturing site pick up and the factory employment rates have also gone up, so do you think that the fears of a double dip recession are well and truly over?
The probability is definitely going down by the day. Even if you discount the fact that fourth quarter GDP growth in the US was heavily influenced by the whole inventory change. The underlying mechanics are still looking relatively decent, so I would be very surprised if double dip necessarily takes hold.
An economist's world is really about probability distribution, so compared to six months ago when far more number of people were far more concerned about the possibility of a double dip, that probability is definitely receding. It is certainly not our base case.
Well, let's move on to the economic data that we have been seeing very, very strong, especially out of the US now that we are seeing the manufacturing site pick up and the factory employment rates have also gone up, so do you think that the fears of a double dip recession are well and truly over?
The probability is definitely going down by the day. Even if you discount the fact that fourth quarter GDP growth in the US was heavily influenced by the whole inventory change. The underlying mechanics are still looking relatively decent, so I would be very surprised if double dip necessarily takes hold.
An economist's world is really about probability distribution, so compared to six months ago when far more number of people were far more concerned about the possibility of a double dip, that probability is definitely receding. It is certainly not our base case.
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