I-Sec maintains Buy on Oil India, revises target price to Rs 530

ICICI Securities has maintained a Buy call on Oil India with a revised target price of Rs 530 (earlier Rs 580). The current market price of Oil India is Rs 430. Oil India, incorporated in 1959, is a Mid Cap company with a market cap of Rs 69285.36 crore, operating in Gas & Petroleum sector.

Oil India's key products/revenue segments include Oil Crude, Gas Natural, Income From Transportation Services, Renewable Energy System, Condensate for the year ending 31-Mar-2024.

Financials

For the quarter ended 31-03-2025, the company has reported a Consolidated Total Income of Rs 9190.64 crore, up 6.39 % from last quarter Total Income of Rs 8639.01 crore and down -1.77 % from last year same quarter Total Income of Rs 9356.32 crore. The company has reported net profit after tax of Rs 1769.40 crore in latest quarter.

The company?s top management includes Dr.Ranjit Rath, Mr.Pankaj Kumar Goswami, Ms.Pooja Suri, Mr.Raju Revanakar, Mr.Ashok Das, Mr.Saloma Yomdo, Mr.Rohit Mathur, Mr.George Thomas. Company has P A & Associates as its auditors. As on 31-12-2024, the company has a total of 163 crore shares outstanding.


Investment Rationale
Given the weaker pricing environment and FY25 production data, ICICI Securities has tweaked oil and gas output estimates slightly downwards vs previous estimates while reducing oil realisation estimates down to $67/69/73 per bbl for FY26/27/28E. Overall, EPS for FY26/27E has been revised by -16.2/-9.1% to Rs 45.2/61.4 per share and introduce FY28E EPS of Rs 67.1/share with this note. Target price has been revised down to Rs 530 (earlier: Rs 580). This still implies a material 24% upside from CMP. Despite the reductions, the brokerage remains positive. Stock price has declined sharply by ~12% in the last 6 months and valuations of 7xFY27E PER/ 5xEV/EBITDA and 1.1x P/BV are fairly attractive. OIL could deliver an EPS CAGR of 22% over FY26-28E, with RoE/RoCEexpanding by 310-340bps by FY28E (vs FY25) and dividend yield of 5.5% (average FY26-28E). I-Sec reiterates BUY with a revised target price of Rs 530, 24% upside from CMP.

Promoter/FII Holdings
Promoters held 56.66 per cent stake in the company as of 31-Dec-2024, while FIIs owned 9.42 per cent, DIIs 17.26 per cent.